JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/22/23

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Ben Clemens

2:25

4, 3 respectively

bosoxforlife

2:25

The Mets have won 5 straight one-run games since the miracle game last Wednesday in which Alvarez and Alonso each hit 3-run HR's with 2 outs in the 9th and 10th. With that win they are a team reborn. I have seldom, read never, seen a happier group than all those associated with the Mets after a single mid-season game.

Ben Clemens

2:26

That game was absurd, and the Mets are really fun to watch right now. They've always been a boom/bust team which makes them fun to watch and also hard to look away from

jack suwinskis mom

2:26

Rank my son’s ROS between how bad as he has been in May (1 ⭐️) to how good as he was in April (10 ⭐️)

Ben Clemens

2:26

Oof, hi Mrs. Suwinski, and let's say 6 stars

Cito's Mustache

2:26

The new Pitch Modelling data here is great. However, when the two models disagree with each other on a player, how should one interpret that? What sort of additional context might help advance the analysis when Bot and Stuff+ are at odds?

Ben Clemens

2:26

I'm gonna be honest with you: they're black boxes and that's kind of the point

2:27

you should interpret it as 'more investigation required' I'd say

Tina

2:27

Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty reunion coming?

Ben Clemens

2:27

It's trending that way imo

2:28

Giolito looks rejuvenated this year

The White Sox, meanwhile, look decidedly un-juvenated. De-juvenated?

2:29

And the Cardinals could really use pitching, particularly someone who can get in the odd seven-inning start to save the bullpen from the rest of the rotation

Guest

2:29

When (or if, really) Cleveland gets McKenzie and Civale back, whose starting job is at risk? Real shot Bibee or Allen get sent back down?

Ben Clemens

2:30

I think they might go 6-man rotation for a bit, which would make sense given injury risks. You could convince me that Allen has a role as a reliever in the short run, I don't really see Bibee that way

2:31

So Hunter Gaddis is probably not going to be up for long, of course, and then I bet they go 6-man for a bit

But what about Quantrill? He's been a lot worse than Allen and Bibee

And he's somehow the fifth-highest paid player on the team at 5.5 million

whoops, sixth-highest, missed Zunino

2:32

I wouldn't be shocked if they tried to trade him for, like, 17 depth pieces from a team who needs a starter

2:32

I've been reading some relatively old baseball books on strategy: "Men at Work", "Pure Baseball" etc. What strikes to me is how obsessed managers used to be about all kinds of hit-and-run situations, pitchouts, stealing 2nd/3rd/home, squeeze plays etc etc.

Is this purely a small-ball era phenomenon, or do managers still think like this?

Ben Clemens

2:32

I think that a lot of that has been replaced by pitching matchups and by where exactly they should deploy each of their relievers to maximize their skills

2:33

But generally speaking, managers put an outsize amount of time into thinking about small things like that because it's really hard for them to impact the outcome of the game in any other way

simba

2:33

Feels like it’s been awhile since we’ve have a great first baseman arrive on the scene (Alonso or Olson are the most recent in my mind). Who do you think is next? Manzardo, Mervis, Casas, Torkelson or someone else?

Ben Clemens

2:33

Iiiiinteresting

2:34

Isn't it just Vinny P??

Let me rephrase: I sure hope it's him

Moose

2:34

What are the odds of Schmitt and Bailey sticking around for the rest of the season for the Giants?

Ben Clemens

2:34

Schmitt I'd say pretty good

2:35

Bailey, I'm very skeptical. They need to keep Sabol on the active roster to avoid losing him and it'd be weird to not have Bart and Perez in the lineup when they're back to being healthy

Er, not in the lineup every day or anything, but on the roster

2:36

Bailey would really have to hit the cover off the ball to stay up, I think

Also I went to his debut this weekend and it was very cool, the Giants fans gave him multiple ovations

Despairing Twins Fan

2:36

Is there any explanation to the sheer ineptitude of the Twins with the bases loaded? They are currently 5 for 43 with no extra base hits (for an OPS of .289). I don't have the stats for previous years, but this feels like it has been going on for a while. Is this just strange statistical noise? Are the hitters in their heads?

Ben Clemens

2:37

My guess is noise but maybe I'll look into it, seems interesting

RTJ

2:37

Speaking of Cardinals player management, what do you think of them calling up Liberatore and then putting him into the bullpen?

Ben Clemens

2:37

Truly don't understand

He looked awesome in his start, I think it's likely that he's one of their top 2 or 3 startesr

2:38

I think the problem boils down to this: he's not gonna bump freaking Adam Wainwright, a living legend

Flaherty is really good when he's right and I think the Cardinals are right to chase that possibility even when he's going badly

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