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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/22/23

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Ben Clemens

2:38

Montgomery is the team's best starter

So that just leaves Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas as guys who could get knocked out of the rotation, and they're each making a bundle of money this year in addition to being around past 2023

2:39

So I guess I'd say I do understand, but it's a problem of their own making and it would behoove them to find something to do about it

Acuna

2:39

Been seeing a lot of talk about Ronald Acuna's defense and "effort". My question is, does it matter when he hits and runs the bases as well as he does?

Ben Clemens

2:39

I think calling it a lack of effort is just lazy

I do think he's not a great instinctual defender, though

2:40

He's always done poorly relative to his top speed, he just does not seem to get good reads out there

But yeah, it does not matter when he's such a good hitter

Cubs pen

2:40

Brutal stretch for us, as you noted. We're at the point where Alzolay and Leiter are the only 2 reliable guys and they've both blown a game in the last few days. Boxberger and Fulmer both look like busts. Time to give Estrada a real role and call up Bailey Horn?

>this guy<

2:40

follow up to my cubs question: if the bullpen usage is puzzling, is it because the pitchers are not so great or are mistakes being made?

Ben Clemens

2:40

The Cubs bullpen, woof

and yeah... I think it's both?

Rick

2:41

What do you make of Austin Riley's slow start? I've been offered Matt Chapman and Wander Franco for Riley? Take it?

Ben Clemens

2:41

Oh man, I'd take it, I'm really high on Wander

and not that I'm down on Riley, but I don't think he's actually an MVP candidate

I think he's more a solid all star

2:42

Chapman has cooled off recently but his ROS projections aren't THAT much worse than Riley's

Chilly

2:42

M Harris bb up Ks down. Is the slump all babip, maybe still dealing w back issues? What's ur take

Ben Clemens

2:43

it's babip and hard contact, but more on the babip/unluckiness side of things. I'm definitely monitoring the back thing, but I think that despite an absolutely abysmal batting line, Braves fans should be encouraged by the sustainable/non-volatile stuff Harris is doing to get better

2:44

He's making better swing decisions, and I think that will pay dividends in the long run

RTJ

2:44

If you were a league-average #3 starter on a league-average team, which team are you most afraid of facing right now? Can it possibly be the Rangers and their league-leading run-scored stats?

Ben Clemens

2:45

Hmmmm

I mean, they're up there

Probably the Rays for me

And if you're a lefty, the Cardinals, like, goodness gracious, they have a bad record this year and they're still the third-best batting team in baseball

JWR

2:46

#freeNolanJones. I know that Jones failed in his first cup of MLB coffee but he has been the most productive hitter in the minors over the last two years and he has nothing left to prove in MILB. Meanwhile, the Rockies continue to play Profar, Moustakas, and Grichuk, all of whom have proven they are not the future. Can you defend the Rockies for the indefensible?

Ben Clemens

2:46

I cannot

marginal utility player

2:46

weird to say this after he just pitched really well against the Mets for 8 innings, but I'm concerned about Shane Bieber. His ERA is nice, but his strikeouts have plummeted once again and he's allowing incredibly hard contact. His xERA has swelled to 4.92

Thoughts on the future for the Guardians ace?

Ben Clemens

2:46

Yeah I'm a bit worried

I don't buy into the xERA completely, but it's hard to be an elite pitcher these days with a 17.8% strikeout rate

2:48

I'm willing to accept that he's saving his best stuff for when there are runners on base, but I dunno, there's a limit to that

2:49

He just keeps getting fewer and fewer swinging strikes, he's not inducing as many chases, and he's already doing the thing I would have suggested, which is throwing more cutters

I'm worried, is the point. I think you have to hope that his stuff recovers

Michael

2:49

Apologies if I missed it - but did you ever talk about why you picked the Orioles to win the division this year? How are you feeling about that now? Thanks!

Ben Clemens

2:49

I don't think I did anywhere, but I can walk through the high points

2:50

I don't think they were the most likely team to win the ALE, and I still don't. But I thought they were being very underrated by the general pundit class, and our predictions are a great place to make a point

I tend to favor making predictions that I feel the market most undervalues, rather than the ones that are most likely to be true

2:51

Sometimes that's the same thing, like I was one of only a few people to pick the Dodgers to win the West. But with the O's, I thought they were basically neck-and-neck with the Red Sox, and wouldn't need many positive surprises to trade blows with the other three teams

They just have a lot of prospect juice, they've demonstrated a real ability to discover and develop good relief arms, and you could see a situation where if their pitching clicked they'd be really good

Did I actually think they were the most likely team to win the division? No way

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