JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/22/23

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Ben Clemens

2:52

But I thought they were a lot closer to the Jays than people were giving them credit for

The Real Ben Clemens

2:52

Is Corbin Burnes fixed

Ben Clemens

2:52

Boy, I'd wait a tiny bit before saying that, but he changed his delivery back to what he was doing last year, and it didn't affect his velocity at all

2:53

I'm not ready to declare him fixed but I'm encouraged that he's making some changes

2:54

Amusingly the biggest change he made is to just start throwing the ball middle middle and seeing what hapens

His most recent start had his highest Heart% by far this year

Highest zone rate as well, obviously

The stuff plays, I like his plan of just letting it eat (maybe it'll need some adjustments, though, so let's keep watching)

under the gunnar

2:54

I have an open roster spot, should I stash Jordan Westburg?

Ben Clemens

2:54

I mean... why not?

John

2:54

Black Boxes?

Ben Clemens

2:55

Yeah as in, the input-to-output process is opaque. You know that they take inputs, and they spit you out an answer, but what inputs lead to what answer isn't clear

Thus, they're much harder to reverse engineer

Zaphod

2:55

Too soon to start beating the "Justin Steele for Cy Young" drum?

Ben Clemens

2:55

Probably a little, but Justin Steele for Cy Young votes is a very reasonable drum, one that more people should be banging

Bob

2:56

Are there any cases to be made for a batter to emerge, never on a top 100 prospect list, to have a long term good career? Last year Stephen Kwan and Jake McCarthy seemed to break that mold but they have regressed a great deal so far this year. I can't think of a batter that has had a good long term career that wasn't on a top 100 prospect list at some point. Pitchers seem to emerge (i.e. Spencer Strider) but not batters. And if not what does that mean for the long term prognosis of guys like James Outman and Matt Mervis?

Ben Clemens

2:56

Well Mookie Betts for one

but yeah, I'll say two things: it's a lot easier to evaluate hitters in my opinion

2:57

There's a reason I do a hitters prediction piece and not a pitchers one

Second, just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't. I'd say that pedigree is important, but evaluating what people are currently doing is just as important, probably more so

5 Run Homer

2:57

Re: great young first basemen; Vladdy Jr! I know he came up as a 3B but he didn't really take off until he moved to 1B

Ben Clemens

2:57

Oh great call

Yeah I just flat out missed on that one

marginal utility player

2:58

has hosmer played his last MLB game?

Ben Clemens

2:58

Nah, there's always some team who will pay for scoops and barrels (note: not barrels the way we think about them, just well-struck balls aimed 3 feet in front of the plate)

Giant Gonzalez

2:58

With Whitlock coming off the IR this week, does Kluber get DFA'd after his next start? I know he managed to lower his ERA yesterday to 6.26 but that's only because 1 of his 5 runs were earned, because he committed the error to allow the other 4 runs to score. Different regime but I remember Smoltz's run in Boston going about as well and lasting about 8 starts

Ben Clemens

2:59

I think it's heading that way. The Sox might try to perform a bit of roster gymnastics to save the option of keeping him in case someone else gets hurt, but at this point it's really a cost/benefit kinda deal where the reasons not to cut him are that it constrains future decision making

Not that he's one of the best five starters right now on the merits

Farhandrew Zaidman

3:00

Hi Ben! Does the Dodgers getting Stone and Miller a half season of reps (projecting ahead based on injuries) end up being a blessing in disguise?

Ben Clemens

3:00

Yeah I think it'll pay off for them

Guest

3:00

When the Reds had McClain down in Louisville with EDLC and CES, would it have been outrageous to say that the Reds (organization’s) 3 best hitters were on the same team, and it wasn’t the Reds?

Ben Clemens

3:00

Outrageous? I don't know if i'd go that far. But I think it'd be wrong

3:01

I have Jonathan India #2 after EDLC

Wrigley

3:01

Can Christopher Morel sustain a 259 wRC+ with a K rate north of 35%?

Ben Clemens

3:01

I mean.... no

But he can be good while striking out a lot