JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/23/22

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, running a few minutes late this morning, we'll get started in about five minutes

2:04

And go!

Corn Pie

2:04

What Has Trevor Story changed?

Ben Clemens

2:04

Luck?

That's too simplistic of course

2:05

It's really difficult to pinpoint any one thing he's done, though. He's swinging at similar pitches. He's hitting the ball a little harder -- though he already had been since a very slow start

2:06

But I do think a lot of it is that he's hot right now

Inaccessible Rail

2:06

Now that Roger Angell is gone, who is the greatest living baseball writer?

Ben Clemens

2:06

I don't think that I'm the right audience for this, but I'm gonna go with a member of the internet generation: Sam Miller. Definitely my favorite baseball writer, at least

Steve

2:06

McClanahan or Skubal?

Ben Clemens

2:08

McClanahan for me. I like Skubal's upside as well but I have an easier time seeing McClanahan's carrying tools (wipeout secondaries, pure stuff in general) holding up

2:09

Skubal's slider has been incredible this year, so that's starting to change my mind a little; but as I look at it, I'm not entirely sure why it's been quite so effective

It's almost a cutter at this point, and I guess it pairs off of his fastball well. There's definitely a chance I'm too low on him. I just look at McClanahan's pitch mix and *get* it in a way I don't yet with Skubal

Guest

2:10

With Langeliers mashing in AAA, do you think the As deal Murphy this year? Mets & Yankees gotta be big suitors. Would he draw a top 10 prospect?

Ben Clemens

2:10

I think he'd be right on that cusp, depending on whether the A's want quality or quantity

2:11

You don't really see players with Murphy's combination of years of control and talent dealt. Teams just keep them! The A's are just in a weird spot where they have good players but also don't want to win baseball games in 2022 (or '23 or '24 seemingly)

But yeah, I could see him drawing a return headlined by a guy that the fans of the acquiring team are deeply uncomfortable about trading

2:12

Maybe not Volpe, but Oswald Peraza or something?

Guest

2:12

Is there any hope for JT Realmuto improving on his lackluster at best start to the season?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Nope he's cooked forever

Probably should just retire

(Realmuto had a much worse 15 game stretch last season, when he was the most valuable catcher in baseball. I'm not worried yet)

Guest

2:13

Who would you guess pitches more innings the rest of the year: deGrom or Kershaw?

Ben Clemens

2:13

But, Kershaw. He seems to have the 'be a little hurt, come back, pitch a little, be a little hurt' game on lock

dG seems more boom/bust, and I'm afraid we're in 'bust' at the moment

Big Joey

2:13

Is Ty France very similar to Freddie Freeman? Seems like both don't strikeout much with great AVGs, with decent pop....am I overvaluing France?

Ben Clemens

2:13

If you think 'eh they're essentially the same hitter' then yes you are

2:14

But if you think 'Ty France is a top 10 first baseman, not a utility player like he was two years ago' then I'm with you

2:16

I'm not quite bought in on where our in-season projections have him (146 wRC+) but he's made real bat-to-ball improvements over the past two years. He makes incredible contact in the zone now, that wasn't always the case. I think that his approach still holds him back somewhat, he's just really aggressive in almost all counts, which is gonna keep his walks down. But if you asked me who I'd rather have for the length of Freeman's contract, I'd lean France

And if you told someone that two years ago they'd laugh

⚾

2:16

__ is the new 30 HR.

Ben Clemens

2:16

Sanford

2:16

Per Dan's piece on Friday, ZiPS still believes in the Mets despite not having Scherzer/deGrom take the hill for at least another month. Do you agree they're still in good shape or are you concerned?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I think it's both. I still think they are the favorites to make the playoffs out of the NLE. They have the best offense, I think... it was easy to forget that Nimmo and McNeil are comfortably plus hitters due to 2021, but their track record is quite good, and they added a ton of juice to it

2:18

Their pitching staff is now not the best in the NLE. But they have a nice cushion in games, and it's much-improved in terms of depth; Bassitt/Carrasco/Walker is a below-average but not bottom-barrel top 3

2:20

I don't have David Peterson as a fourth starter; I'm not saying he's a great major league pitcher but as a fill-in that seems totally reasonable. If Megill comes back in any reasonable amount of time, it's not clear to me that they're a TON worse than the Braves' staff, where Morton's decline offsets Wright's rise

So if they can keep afloat (and again, I like their offense slightly more than ATL's), they have some great reinforcements coming

2:21

Would I feel better about their chances if their top two pitchers weren't on the IL? I definitely would

Guest

2:21

So you're saying I should drop Jonah Heim for JT Realmuto in my fantasy league if another owner gave up on the latte?

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