JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/23/22

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Ben Clemens

2:21

yes

B'Ryce Hammer's Luscious Locks

2:22

freakout time over... Is it time to cut A. Chapman in a 10 team? ClevDawg is on the wire right now, cause I keep waffling between him and M. Gore.

Ben Clemens

2:22

I do. I understand small sample stuff, I'm generally skeptical of 'changed talent levels' early in the season

But Chapman isn't throwing hard, isn't missing bats, and just doesn't look like he can succeed when he's sitting 95-98

2:23

I don't think he's long for the closer's role given the talent NYY has in their 'pen, and without that, I don't think the rate stats are gonna do it for you

Juiced Ball

2:23

Jesse Winker.. that unlucky or does he need the juiced balls back

Ben Clemens

2:23

porque no los dos?

Oddball Herrera

2:23

At this point is Ian Anderson basically wysiwyg? The Ks are ok but he is perpetually suffering from WHIP issues

Ben Clemens

2:24

That is a great encapsulation of how I feel about him. He's just always going to look breakout-ready and deliver kinda average performance

2:25

I'd be happy streaming him in fantasy, and happy having him as an inning-filling rotatoin member in real life baseball

bosoxforlife

2:26

More disappointing this year, The Blue Jays or the Red Sox?

Ben Clemens

2:27

I have to say the Jays, because of all the hype around them.

It's early to write any obituaries for the season, but I think it's fair to say we as a collective punditry were too high on Toronto's pitching

And just willing to believe that breakouts would continue

Guest

2:28

Where are Pham, Mahle, and Castillo playing on August 1?

Ben Clemens

2:28

I'm gonna say: Chicago, New York, Milwaukee, respectively

2:29

My general idea here is that those teams need to make trades, but I don't have any inside info or whatnot

Guest

2:29

so expected statcast numbers are no predictive….If you are digging into them though to try to discover breakouts vs hot streaks what would you supplement them with? I am looking at some of the leaders on expected stats (Naylor, Walker, Yazstztstzrmski) with a degree of “all statcast says is you had two good weeks” skepticism

Ben Clemens

2:29

I think barrel rate is really useful. I think swing decisions are relaly useful. Max exit velocity is nice, too

2:30

Just using xwOBA or whatever might miss the finer points, but looking at the things hitters do as building blocks of positive events (avoiding swinging and missing, hitting the ball very hard) is a good place to start

Guest

2:30

Can you see the IP address of the people submitting questions to determine whether questions ostensibly from two different people are actually from the same person?

Ben Clemens

2:30

I can... but I generally don't take the time to

Derek

2:30

Tommy Edman has the 7th most (8th most including pitchers) WAR in MLB!

Ben Clemens

2:30

Pretty amazing, right? I have to say that I didn't see it coming, particularly when he was messing around with abandoning switch hitting last year

B'Ryce Hammer's Luscious Locks

2:31

what is wysiwyg?

Ben Clemens

2:31

what you see is what you get

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:31

Dodgers resigning Treinen for 2023 a tacit admission that he won't be ready this year? They sure love those two year contracts on hurt bullpen arms.

Ben Clemens

2:31

If nothing else, it makes me lean in that direction more

Guest

2:32

So is Matt Chapman just basically not a great hitter anymore? Is he basically post-30 Brooks Robinson?

Ben Clemens

2:33

I could be annoyingly smug and ask whether he was ever a great hitter, but I'll skip that; he was at very least an above-average hitter for several years

But I don't think anything he's done since 2020 has made me think 'oh this guy will be back to posting 120 wrC+'s soon'

2:34

I think he'll do better than he's done so far in Toronto, he's not gonna keep babip'ing .228 and his strikeout rates are more 'ew' than 'ewwwwwwwwwww' this year, but he's always gonna be a slug-over-obp kind of hitter, and I guess I'm not surprised that's leading to a rough start

I'll take the over on a 105 wRC+ the rest of the way, but his true value is his glove, not his bat

Derek

2:34

Toronto has the 9th most pitching WAR in the majors this season! Was the consensus really higher on them than that? Granted, Gausman has accounted for almost half of that...

Ben Clemens

2:35

Yeah it's just the rest of the staff. The guys who aren't Gausman were supposed to be good. I, for example, had Jose Berrios winning the Cy Young

Mario

2:35

You think MIL needs to add a SP? What about Ashby?

Ben Clemens

2:35

I think they'll want Ashby in the bullpen, and I worry that someone will wear down

Matt (Costa Rica)

2:36

Do you see signs that players are starting to come out of these offensive funks? Like Mookie is hitting better (still haven't seen him tatoo a 95+ though)

Ben Clemens

2:37

Mookie is 6th in baseball in WAR and has a 153 wrC+. He's sixth in baseball in homers. I think it's okay to say that he's not in a funk

McBain

2:37

If you're the Padres, what do you prioritize? Do you plan for (positive) regression by Grisham, Myers, Nola, and (lesser extent) Cronenworth, plus the return of Tatis, to deepen the lineup, or do you go after outside reinforcements?

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