JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/23/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/23/22

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Ben Clemens

2:38

I think I'd do a little of both. I think there's positive regression coming, but I'd be worried about the ongoing Hosmer cooldown

he's been wooooooofbad in May, .250/.289/.319 for a 72 wRC+

and with a .283 BABIP, it's not like he's just wildly unlucky

B'Ryce Hammer's Luscious Locks

2:39

Ashbey is stepping into the rotation right now with Peralta hitting the IL

Ben Clemens

2:39

I understand that... I just think that the team would like to have a more dedicated starter and make Ashby a dedicated reliever

Guest

2:39

Albert Pujols has accumulated more WAR with the Dodgers in 2021 and the Cardinals this year than he did in his last 7 seasons with the Angels. Related question: Does he reach 700 HRs?

Ben Clemens

2:40

I don't think he's gonna make it to 700, but I would have given it a 1% chance (or arbitrary low number of your choice) before this season, and now I'm up to, I dunno, 10%

Still feels like this is his farewell tour, and 17 bombs the rest of the way is tough. He has four this year in more than a month of games

Cubbies

2:40

Do you think Morel has improved his Hit tool prospects? He was 35’d on the 2022 report but seems to have made some improvement this year. Intriguing tools if he isn’t K’ing 40%

Ben Clemens

2:42

I haven't watched any video of him to see if much has changed, but I don't see much reason to change priors yet He's striking out 23.5% of the time in the majors (and 25% in AA), which is just a hair better than last year, give him a few more games to see what we have

Jason N

2:42

I haven’t been into games since my HS days playing Risk, D&D and Axis & Allies. Kind of interested in getting back into this. Are most games now just evolution from 30 years ago or do I need to learn all of these new game concepts from scratch?

Ben Clemens

2:42

It's a mix of both. I think that a lot of games these days are takeoffs on D&D that try to turn it from an open-ended adventure with a lot of responsibility on one person to make up the story to everyone gets to play and the game does the story

2:43

But Risk, AA, those style of games are less popular. Euro games -- basically engine games where you have to juggle a bunch of different resources and they all contribute to victory in different ways -- are the dominant species these days. Settlers of Catan is the classic here, and honestly it's pretty fun

Derek

2:43

Have you played Caper: Europe? It has a cool theme, fun drafting mechanics, and, imo best of all, doesn't have much of the "gotcha"-type stuff that can potentially make 1v1 board games a negative experience

Ben Clemens

2:44

I sure haven't, but now I'm going to look it up.

2:45

Oh yeah, competing with another crime boss to steal the most art in Europe, that sounds like something I'd be extremely into

Some Guy

2:45

Do you have any opinion on whether the Guardians should use Sam Hentges more often out of the bullpen? Right now, his numbers and underlying metrics make him look like the second coming of Andrew Miller.

Ben Clemens

2:46

I think they totally should. His numbers look excellent this year, and offhand to me it looks like he has a new or at least fairly modified slider that plays well

xyznottabot

2:46

Do you have anything insightful to say about Mike Trout this year, or is it just amazement/happiness/warm feelings?

Ben Clemens

2:46

Happiness!

2:47

Just, what great news for baseball. He's very fun to watch, the Angels hvae been a pleasant surprise this year, and it's nice to get to make the 'sample size is big enough when Trout leads the league' jokes again

Colton

2:48

Have we seen the best of Keston Hiura? Do you think there's any way he can right the ship and get back to what he looked like in '19 or has he been completely figured out?

Ben Clemens

2:49

I.... I dunno if I think he's been figured out, but I do think that he'll never replicate the heights of 2019

2:50

It really felt like a mirage, even at the time. Like, he wasn't a 70 power prospect or anything and then he just started tearing the cover off the ball

I didn' expect the fall to be this severe, but I don' really know how that leg kick could work longterm in the majors, and it kind of seems like he doesn't have enough power without it

Concerned Canadian

2:51

How real is what Espinal is doing? Do the Jays have their second baseman of the future?

Ben Clemens

2:52

Yeah

I'm in!

I have succumbed to a small sample

2:53

I don't think he's gonna keep slugging this much, but I've always thought his on-base skills could play, and trading in some stirkeouts for having reasonable power instead of 0-ish power is a nice change to his game that should keep pitchers honest. Then, of course, he's a premium defender

I was banging the 'don't trade for a third baseman, Espinal is a first-division starter' drum this winter, and I could still see him being better there than at second, but he looks like the real deal to me

bosoxforlife

2:53

The Dodgers lost a game yesterday in which they had a 95% Win Probably in the 9th then a 90% WP in the 10th and lost on a Max Muncy error, he of the .156/.331/.279 line, that I could have made. The Phillies had a .005 chance of winning. Unbelievable! I haven't seen many finishes like that in my many, many years of watching this great game.

Ben Clemens

2:54

What can you say about that game? It was bonkers and unbelievable, and isn't baseball great?

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:54

What franchises do you think do best at minor-league pitching development, and why do you think they are successful? What can other teams do to catch up?

Ben Clemens

2:54

The Rays, Yankees, Dodgers, and Giants stand out in my mind. Cleveland is on there too

Milwaukee

2:55

I think that working with players and finding ways to make what they do individually best stand out is the way of the future for pitching development. Cookie-cutter approaches just don't cut it when everyone can do that easily

Sharps

2:55

to Jason N's point, there are a TON of good area control/conflict games...Root, Kemet, Pax Pamir, Inis, Smallworld...

Ben Clemens

2:55

That's fair (I haven't played Root, but I've heard I'm supposed to)

2:56

But I still don't feel like those games are super tethered to Risk. One of the things I like about them (Inis is probably my favorite) is that it feels really asymmetrical as you play. But yeah, area control games are still around, definitely should have mentioned those

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