JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/24/21

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Ben Clemens

2:49

But yeah, give hitters run, and if pitchers see a decline in stuff, be worried

Is my gneeral rule

Jay T

2:49

Is Matt Olson and Pete Alonso pretty much the same offensive player?

Ben Clemens

2:49

They'd make a nice platoon

KC Bbq

2:49

So, if Brujan comes up to play CF what with Keirmaeir? Released, traded ??

Ben Clemens

2:49

Oh, traded

I'm not sure it'll happen

2:51

But the Rays don't like paying people, and Kiermaier has a salary above 0, so the Rays writers and fans I follow are really high on coming up with trade proposals for him

BIG FAN

2:51

Exactly, great point. Many people will be dropping Kelenic in a few weeks if he doesn’t pick it up according to Yahoo chats on his profile lol

Nolan

2:51

Speaking of giving up too earlier on prospects... Kelenic is a certified bust now, right? /s

Dalton Wilcox

2:52

Speaking of Olson, he’s breaking out yah? Like big time breaking out

Like better than ever breakout

Ben Clemens

2:52

I don't think his strikeout rate is gonna stick this low given his approach, but it has space to go up by say 5-10 percentage points and still have him better than ever

2:53

I was definitely too low on him coming into the season

Our ROS projetions are in the 130 wRC+ range, which is great, better than his career line. That's a truly valuable 1B

And that's before we get into the defense

Super Max

2:53

Regarding Riley: I get the idea that some fans overhype their prospects to a point where they expect immediate All-Star performance. Reaching the status of average everyday player is already a solid outcome for many of the top-100 prospects.

Ben Clemens

2:53

Yeah, this too

2:54

Average everyday players are realllllly good

2:55

In 2019, there were something like 90 players who were average or better in a full season's playing time

So 3 per team on average?

Steve O

2:56

Any chance the Rays wait until NEXT year to call up Wander? He's only 20, and they may just rather him get more seasoning in AAA. They know they'll probably only have him for 4, maybe 5 years, what difference does it make to them if he's up at 20 or 21?

Ben Clemens

2:57

I don't think so. That's just wasteful; the Rays are good right now, and adding Franco makes them more likely to be good this year

If they're totally out of the race when they get done gaming his Super 2 eligiblitiy, then mayyyyybe

2:58

But like, are they gonna keep him down past Super 2 again next year? Otherwise there's nothing to be gained after they de-S2 him this year

For those of you unfamiliar with the dark arts of keeping your prospects down, the top 20% (I think?) of players with less than a full year of service time are granted Super 2 status, which gets them to arbitration a year earlier in exchange for an extra year of arb

2:59

So the team keeps the same number of years of control, but the player gets paid more in those years

If you can get a guy below 110-ish days of service time, you get to pay them the minimum for an extra year

The Rays are not famous for *not* using every possible lever to minimize payroll expenditure

Guest

2:59

Are we seeing max Muncy? He’s been on a hot streak.

Ben Clemens

2:59

This might even be super-max Muncy

3:00

He's locked in at the plate in a way I haven't seen someone in quite a while. Not just hitting the ball hard, but swinging where he can do damage and such. It's quite impressive

Guest

3:00

Kelenic will obviously improve, but am I wrong in thinking he was almost dangerously overhyped? He's got plenty of power, but to me he seems like a guy whose average and OBP might be fairly pedestrian, and who will be best suited as a corner OF. As you just said, average players are really good! But it feels like he has been hyped as the next Trout, which is a lot to live up to.

Ben Clemens

3:01

If people were hyping Kelenic as the next Trout, they're going to be disappointed

I mean, the guy can really hit! Don't get me wrong

3:03

When I ran weighted major league likelihoods to do some fringe prospect research this offseason, he was right up there with Alex Kirilloff, Geraldo Perdomo, Jeter Downs, some good names

But I mean.... Eric put a 60 on him, which is a nice prospect grade

Trout was an 80

KC Bbq

3:03

The vast majority of rookies struggle when they first get called up.....even Trout. That being said how long of a leash will the Mariners have with Kelenic if he keeps struggling like this?

Ben Clemens

3:04

Huge, I think. They might as well just run with it at this point

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