JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/4/26

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Ben Clemens

2:13

Yeah, I'm excited for him just because I think the stuff is real

2:15

will he figure it out? Will he be able to stay healthy and effective? Dunno, but given their injury situation and the fact that Senga wasn't exactly lights out when healthy, I think they're gonna give him plenty of rope

Lord Thunder

2:15

Will CJ Abrams be playing for the Nationals next season? What position will he be playing?

Ben Clemens

2:15

I'm gonna go with no, and second base

Opifijikl

2:15

How real is situational hitting to you? Some of my coworkers say that you should try to move runners over and pop the ball the other way instead of aiming for the fences each time and others say try to hit a homer each time - where do you fall on this? Thinking about how the red sox seem to do the latter but it seems like they have better results on the rare cases where they do the latter.

Ben Clemens

2:16

I think that it's not really about aiming so much as intent

Like, I do think it exists. Obviously it does to some extent. BUt I think it's more about 'okay, dial the swing down a bit for contact' or 'make sure to stay back so that I can try to at least punch it the other way if I'm beaten'

so much as wehre you're aiming

the value of moving a runner over is not that high, contingent on you still making an out

2:17

and hitters giving up outs just doesn't pan out well

but saying something like 'I'm gonna dial down my swing 5% to put a ball in play' seems maybe more reasonble to me?

I guess I take issue with 'aiming for the fences'. That's not really what people are doing. They're trying to hit the ball at dangerous angles

Tyler

2:17

At what point do platoon splits really start to be indicative of skill set as opposed to just noise? I'm not anti-platooning, but I do wonder how many guys that are used more in a platoon role are actually capable of being an every-day player.

Ben Clemens

2:17

oh basically never for htiters

2:18

it's like, roughly one career's worth, if you're looking at just results

now, you can look at granular stuff and get faster answers. And pitchers have more real platoon splits than batters, b/c they get to choose the shape of their pitches whereas batters face a whole squadron of different pitchers with different pitches

but basically, the answer is that lots of hittesr who are used in more of a platoon role are actually capable of being an everyday player, and that I think managers are too cute by half about platooning

2:19

like, not to pick on the Mets, but are you really that excited to bat Austin Slater because he happens to be righty?

and before him Tommy ham

Pham*

but those guys are just on the team because they bat right-handed. I don't really think Pham projected as a better hitter, even against lefties, than some of the team's lefty options (notably MJ Melendez)

Idiotic Failson

2:19

How hilarious would it be if one of the Sox made the playoffs, and it wasn't the one from Boston

Ben Clemens

2:20

honestly, yes

that would be spectacular

HOF'er Dave Veres

2:20

Personally, who do you currently find more exciting, Wetherholt or Walker?

Ben Clemens

2:20

Wetherholt but that's just because I've been burned a few times by Walker

2:21

gonna need to see more before I accept that he's good now

Oaktown Blues

2:21

I really love the baseball sim in the FanGraphs lab. Does it take park effects into account when projecting individual statistics?

Ben Clemens

2:21

it does not, though it might soon. At the moment I'm working on times through the order adjustments to put into the sim, and I think ew're working on some other stuff in the background too

Welland Jackfish

2:22

May the 4th be with you!

Ben Clemens

2:22

and with your force ghoist

ghost*

K’d Cavalli

2:22

This is a public service announcement to stop people from asking Claude to create meaningless Stuff+ models and posting them on X without analysis or criterion

Ben Clemens

2:22

My goodness, I could not agree more

I love vibe coding. I vibe code a lot of stuff for my use. But the way I do it is to figure out the math engine on my own, and then use AI for the scaffolding

if you tell it to come up with the math, you're gonna have a bad time

2:23

like, this is a tool for programming, not a tool for deciding how to do analysis. And when people misunderstand that, they get in trouble, in my opinion

Appa Yip Yip

2:23

When Alejandro Kirk comes back would you send down Valenzuela to preserve the depth or just roll the dice sending down Heineman because he has been very very bad.

Ben Clemens

2:25

I'd probably send Heineman down. Don't get too cute here, like, the Heinemans of the world can be found

the point is to win games. Don't prioritize nebulous future flexibility (in backup catchers) over winning games

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