JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/4/26

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Junior Caminero Jr.

2:25

Are there any old school baseball practices or techniques that you think modern stats may be undervaluing or not fully capturing?

Ben Clemens

2:25

I actually had a good discussion on Effectively Wild about this last Friday, and I'd encourage you to listen to it if you get a chance

2:26

basically, I think that model blindness is a real thing. Once you make a model, you start thinking that the things it doesn't capture aren't real

I think there's a lot of sequencing/game calling/deception things to pitching that are real but are very hard to quantify

2:27

I think that level-headedness as a hitter is really big - good luck measuring that

basically I think a ton of mental skills are poorly measured, and that when stat-type people (often like me) go wrong, they go wrong by saying 'well we can't measure it so it doesn't exist'

a great example is seam-shifted wake, which didn't exist right up until it did

Insert Witty Name Here

2:27

So I keep telling anyone who tells me May the 4th be with you that Star Wars sucks and they need to stop attaching themselves to something trivial, but then I realize half my wardrobe is related to sports teams and I'm just ridiculous.

Ben Clemens

2:28

haha yeah: I'm not quite a go wish people happy star wars day type but Star Wars was a big part of my childhood, so I identify with the nerds who love it

and also yeah, this is one of those situations where it's not like it matters so much what makes them happy, so let them be happy

I'm with you overall, in other words

Welland Jackfish

2:29

Austin Slater is 100 points of OPS better against lefties than righties in his career, and the vs lefties mark is 80 points higher than MJ Melendez career OPS. Teams platoon because it usually makes sense

Ben Clemens

2:29

I mean, I might argue that it matters more that Slater has a combined .607 OPS over the last three years, but you know, who cares

statistics can be twisted to say what you want

2:30

Melendez, too, has been awful in recent years (though he's mainly not played)

the point is that if you just look at someone's career platoon splits, they'll probably mislead you more than guide you. The platoon effect exists. Your best bet is to assume a STANDARD platoon adjustment, 5% for righties and 8% for lefties

individual, outlier true talent platoon skill among hitters is exceedingly rare

Matt