JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/1/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/1/20

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Guest

2:44

Will we ever see a pitcher bat again in the major leagues?

Ben Clemens

2:44

Oh absoutely.

2:45

Even if they decided to change that for good they wouldn't do it before the CBA expires I don' think

Because owners will want to use that as a CBA carrot

More jobs for hitters

So 2021 will have NL pitchers hitting

Owners

2:45

I think they're showing that being that rich doesn't actually make you smart.

Ben Clemens

2:45

Eh, I dunno, they may have an agenda that this works for

2:46

I'm not exactly sure how a baseball owner thinks about his team

Whether it's a sum of discounted cashflows or whatever

Guest

2:46

You're likely correct on the DH, but I I was thinking as part of negotiations that maybe it would give from the owners now on the DH.

Ben Clemens

2:47

Yeah, I suppose it's a possibility, just not one I find overwhelmingly likely. But maybe that'd be part of some grand bargain

MoKo

2:47

Owners had proposed 82 and MLBPA 114; would the final number fall above or below 92?

Ben Clemens

2:47

Below I think. I actually think the 'more games' part of the players' proposal won't be very interesting to ownership

Their revenues become a lot more fixed without live in-person baseball

2:48

Because again, they have the hammer when it comes to RSN negotiations

And the big national TV contracts are all about the playoffs

While their costs remain variable, i.e. player salaries

So while I don't think it's very likely, based on the numbers that I've seen, that the league would be losing money by putting on a season, I think they'd prefer a shorter regular season

Sam

2:49

How sad is it that David Price, whose net worth is maybe 10% of the lower wealth owners' net worth, is somehow able to come up with enough money to give every minor leaguer in the Dodgers' system $1000 this month, but some teams (looking at you Oakland) can't find $1600 per player?

Ben Clemens

2:49

I mean, they can come up with the money.

They're not broke, they're not sending stop payments on any checks.

They're just *choosing* not to

They've decided that they'd rather keep that 1600 bucks

than give it to a minor leaguer

That's all it is. No one thinks the A's would go bankrupt if they paid that money, and even the A's wouldn't tell you that

2:50

They'd just have less money

If they paid it

And they'd prefer to not have less money

Audience member

2:50

So Tony Clark is the "manager" of the MLBPA. Who would be considered the manager of the owners? Manfred? What role does a guy like Joe Torre have in all of this, being the special assistant to Manfred? I would think his experience as a former player, manager, and executive VP of Baseball Operations would hold a lot value.

Ben Clemens

2:51

Could be. I dunno what Torre does in this exactly but he's on the owners' side. And Manfred is a labor lawyer. He's a very valuable point man for the owners in this fight. I'm not sure what managerial experience would add that isn't covered by expertise in the league office.

Pumpsie Green

2:51

Owners did not propose to pay for 82, though. They said they'll pay for about 58. I'm guessing a 78-game season?

Ben Clemens

2:51

I would agree that it's more likely to be shorter than longer, yeah. I think you hit on it exactly -- it matters what the owners are willing to pay for

2:52

The owners would happily play 114 games if they got to only pay for 58

Because the marginal gross income of a game is higher than 0

Guest

2:52

The issue with the DH is I believe both sides want to adopt it, meaning the players (for obvious reasons) and now even MLB front offices, so both sides wanting it means neither side wants to actually give in on it, if that makes sense.

Ben Clemens

2:52

This makes perfect sense to me. That's a good way of putting it.

Edwin

2:53

Here are sophomore and power-speed combo of 20/20 candidates of next season. Kyle Tucker, Cavan Biggio, Tommy Edman, Nick Senzel, Trent Grisham. Is there anyone who you like?

Ben Clemens

2:53

Grisham. And I liked Tucker going into the season but I wonder if the Astros will just stick with Reddick given the shorter season.

In a big long season you can just play Tucker all you want and there's still no shot of losing the AL West

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