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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/1/20

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Ben Clemens

2:53

so you might as well find what you have

In a shorter season with mashed-together playoff odds, maybe you want the sure thing

Pumpsie Green

2:54

What percent chance is there that Austin Martin will fall to the Jays at 5? Say, 3%? Less?

Ben Clemens

2:54

I'm going to defer to Eric on that one, because for that kind of question, you really just do need to know people on the teams, or know the right guys with the right dirt, or see x scouting director at y game (not this year, but in general)

Sam

2:54

Do you think it helps or hurts the MLBPA to have a former player in the executive director role vs. having a labor lawyer like they did in the past?

Ben Clemens

2:54

Oh, hurts.

2:55

There are upsides, like keepin the union more cohesive and things like that.

But I think that the downsides are greatest at an exact time like this, when both sides are facing new and heretofore unseen decisions and tradeoffs

2:56

The MLBPA has lots of labor lawyers, of course, but I think they'd do better in this negotiation if their response were run by one

2-D

2:56

Did you watch the Roy Halladay documentary?

Ben Clemens

2:56

I didn't even know it existed, which is bad form

But now I'd like to

2:57

Roy Halladay's general invincibility as a pitcher, and just how helpless it felt when he took the mound against your team, is something that I just know viscerally

From being a Cards fan when he was in his Phillies years

That feeling of 'oh well we'll just lose' is brutal

2:58

And I don't think I've had that feeling more about anyone else in the 21st century

JoJo

2:58

How do you see the White Sox rotation this year? Thoughts on Cease, Kopech, ReyLo and Rodon? How do you rank them?

Ben Clemens

2:58

The elusive White Sox question from earlier.

I thikn they are quite unlikely to give Kopech a shot in the majors this year

2:59

For service time reasons

3:00

Past that, I think my ranking would go Cease/ReyLo/Rodon

I never really got the whole Rodon hype

I mean, he's obviously a good major leaguer, I just didn't understand why people thought he had a high ceiling

Maybe they didn't and I'm projecting

3:01

Having a strong opinion either way on ReyLo/Cease seems difficult, they're very similar players with very similar results so far, but I like that archetype more when it comes to the chances of something exciting happening

Owners

3:01

Well then why don't they just have a 60 game season and a many-teams postseason?

Ben Clemens

3:02

I think that this could be a compromise that kinda works. I think the owners will probably need to give a little bit on the money front as well -- maybe a 70 game season or something -- but less games is the way I'd lean.

Guest

3:02

Isn't the big problem that MLB is still supposedly getting money from the TV deals? That means that teams get most of their revenue without paying their biggest expense (player salaries). Could many teams be more profitable if they get RSN money without any games played?

Ben Clemens

3:02

So zero games played is a lot different than fewer games played, I think

3:03

If nothing else, from a playoff broadcasting money perspective

But I'm not convinced that teams could get away with not giving an RSN anything at all

If you have half the season and say 'hey it was a freaking global pandemic'

Then sure

But if you come back with zero

And you don't also own the RSN

Might be murkier

3:04

I also wonder w hat happens to RSN's carriage fees if they go a season with no baseball

3:04

I lost my job minutes ago Ben. Need an assistant?

Ben Clemens

3:04

Ah man, I'm really sorry to hear that

3:05

Sadly I do not need, and also cannot afford, an assistant, but I hope something works out. It's just a phenomenally crappy time to have uncertain employment prospects, and it's happening to far too many people.

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