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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/23/25

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Ben Clemens

2:13

why are the DBacks trading Gallen and Suarez?

they're spending a crap ton of money trying to compete

they're in playoff contention unless they have a big swoon

2:14

and surely you want the Cubs to flip them like, a lottery ticket and maybe some bubblegum since they're both rentals, it's not like Arizona would be acquiring guys who will help them win during their current competitive window (soon)

so I just don't understand the motivation for this trade

2:17

a better fit would be like.... Miguel Vargas and Shane Smith or something similar

because at least the White Sox are trying to sell

Kevin

2:17

Strider also had (and still has) only 2 pitches.

Ben Clemens

2:17

Yep

Bosoxforlife

2:17

101.6 on my Nat Geo thermometer. Only the 4th day since 1905 that it has reached 100 in June here near Hartford, CT. If i needed another reason to chat today, which I don't, that is more than enough. Question: I am still on the fence about Rafaela. If he can hold a 99 OPS + is that good enough?

Ben Clemens

2:17

oh my goodness, 100

2:18

I used to work in CT and I kind of can't believe that. I remember June as a nice time to walk to the train in the afternoon, not a nice time to never leave air conditioning

If Rafaela is a league average hitter, he's great, imo

like, best Red Sox outfielder great

he's a special defender

2:19

I am very skeptical he can hit that level offensively, to be fair. His sense of the strike zone is just not very good yet. I think that needs to improve for him to make the overall package work, otherwise he's kinda living on mistakes

War2d2

2:19

re: Gallen/Suarez, that was the implication from Bruce Levine’s report, but he didn’t name names. On the topic of Gallen, his Statcast is ice blue. At this point he just seems to be a bad pitcher. Is he A) possibly a “change of scenery” guy, B) hurt, C) aging out of the league prematurely, or D) other? If that Cubs rumor is true, is he (and his 5+ ERA) even an upgrade at this point?

Ben Clemens

2:21

Yeah..... I think my best guess on Gallen is b) because I don't see why a) would suddenly be the case after years of not needing one

d) also seems like an option

and yeah, trading for Gallen is weird right now

would you be pleased to get him? I think you would if it cost almost nothing

but then why would Arizona let him go for that?

maybe things change if they're 5 under .500 in a month, though

2:22

for one thing, they're not gonna let him go for less than the comp pick for a qualifying offer, he's surely gonna get one

Reds fan battling the heat dome

2:22

Will I regret not going to see Chase Burns' debut Tuesday night? Or will I regret sitting in the midwestern heat dome as I gaze through my binoculars in the outfield seats of GABP and say, "yep, he throws hard!". Your counsel is needed.

Ben Clemens

2:22

I'd probably go if it's below 80 at night, that's kinda my limit for not feeling awful in heat (I can handle more during the day, but hot sticky nights are just miserable)

2:23

but I will say this: I've been to a lot of players' debuts and also a lot of players' rookie seasons. I don't think the debut feels meaningfully more special than the rookie season unless they do something amazing that very day

so if it's gonna be a hardship to go this time, don't, but find another Chase Burns game to go to this year

Guest

2:23

If you asked GMs, would they rather have 1 year of a 10 war catcher or an 11 war outfielder?

Ben Clemens

2:23

I think they probably wouldn't care much

2:24

those numbers are just gaudy enough that they could make either work

I guess on average they'd prefer the outfielder b/c what if they already had a good catcher? but you can always add an outfielder

Defensive metrics

2:24

Do you generally trust DRS or OAA more? Does it change by position? Personally I’m more skeptical of DRS because I feel like it produces a lot more weird outlier seasons.

Ben Clemens

2:24

I was gonna do a more specific breakdown of this after voting for Fielding Bible awards last year but I never got around to it

basically I like OAA most (on a relative basis) for the infield

2:25

where I think it is both more stable and more correlated to my attempts at creating a 'defensive baseline' based on conversion rate of opportunities into outs

in the outfield I like to use both

Rex Manning Day

2:26

intentional walks are an abomination. a team's best hitter coming to the plate in a big moment is precisely the kind of moment we watch baseball for, and it's absurd that the other team can just be like, "nah, next." my proposal: eliminate the pitchless IBB, and require catchers to (1) be behind the plate and (2) not standing up when the pitch is thrown. so you can still pitch around a guy, you just have to throw 4 actual pitches that miss the zone to do it. thoughts?

Ben Clemens

2:26

this doesn't really bother me very much, to be honest, though I see why you don't like it

2:27

I think doing this would just lead to some bad outcomes, basically. more hit batters, more dangerous pitches, more chance of someone getting hurt, but the vast majority of the time no change in outcome

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