JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/23/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/23/25

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J

2:27

PCA lost nearly 3 OAA for balls getting caught in the sun and wind on a crazy day at Wrigley. Is there any way to even account for this? Seems unfair to dock him like a third of a win for balls that are definitely not 99% catch probability in reality.

Ben Clemens

2:27

well, do you think that the stats got EVERYTHING right every other time he's caught one?

since the averages are based on all balls, some of his 95% catches are probably like (99% unless it's a sun ball then 0)

2:28

so should we go devalue all of his non-sun-ball catches slightly?

the idea of these systems is that they're good in aggregate, not that they're a flawless accounting of the exact value provided by every player excluding all elements

like yeah, an ideal system would account for more stuff

but eh, it's small potatoes to me

Oaktown Blues

2:29

Jacob Lopez only throws like 91, but he's posting some gaudy K numbers recently. His fastball kinda reminds me of Rich Hill's. Have you seen any of his starts? Is he maybe a mid rotation arm?

Ben Clemens

2:29

I've seen a little of him and I don't feel comfortable with an opinion just yet

it doesn't LOOK like it should work, but yeah, neither do lots of pitchers

Bosoxforlife

2:29

Of all the surprises that I have had during my long history of following this game, #1 is that Francisco Lindor emerged as a power hitter. After watching him in Double A I would have bet he wouldn't hit 30 HR's in his career, not 30 in one year 5 times in his career but seeing Eugenio Suarez just hit his 300th HR isn't far behind and to think he was traded for a bag of balls by the Tigers many years ago.

Ben Clemens

2:29

Eugenio Suarez gets traded for a bag of balls like all the time

it's so weird

2:31

Like, first the Tigers trade, then the Reds trade him to the Mariners (plus Jesse WInker, the headliner of the deal b/c he was a young cheap breakout candidate)

in that one, the Reds included Suarez seemingly to lower payroll

2:32

then the Mariners trade him to the DBacks for Carlos Vargas and Seby Zavala, to dump payroll basically

meanwhile he just keeps hitting, everywhere

he has to be one of the most surprising power hitters of all time

Lowe Distribution System

2:32

The death of the starting pitcher was supposed to coincide with the rise of 2-4 inning relievers, but I don't think we've seen that happen essentially at all. Instead, everyone has just used AAA roster spots to effectively grow the size of the bullpen. Can we stop this, or do we even care about the aesthetic difference of 1 vs 3 inning relievers?

Ben Clemens

2:33

truthfully, I don't think the league cares enough to stop it

I think they're also worried about how that might affect injury risk

Talfred

2:33

Every day that goes by, it looks more and more to me like Jarren Duran's 2024 season was a career year, offensively and defensively, and that his 2025 season is close to his true talent level. Would you agree?

Ben Clemens

2:34

mmmm, I think he's better than he's shown this year, but I think his true level is close to his career line (109 wRC+)

2:35

I spent a lot of time thinking about Duran's value at various points last year and then a ton again this year, and it's hard for me to look at his skillset and see an elite hitter. but average (or a little above) plus good D, the second coming of Benintendi (Red Sox era)? Sure

Oaktown Blues

2:35

Tbh when the Reds traded Suarez I thought he was pretty cooked. Impressive second wind

Ben Clemens

2:35

Oh, I did too!

Guest

2:36

I think you underestimate voter fatigue and the need for a new storyline.

Ben Clemens

2:36

i mean, could be. I'd feel more confident in that if Judge weren't THIS good, or if he'd won three in a row, or if he werne't a Yankee

LAD-PIT

2:37

Are Rushing, Freeland, Ferris, Hope, and De Paula a fairish/reasonable return for Skenes? This is coming from a Pads fan that decidedly doesn't want to see this happen, just curious.

Ben Clemens

2:37

I don't think so - it's not as good of a return as the Soto deal, and Skenes has more years of team control

and additionally, it would probably end the Pirates to trade Paul Skenes for a bunch of maybes. you better be getting an elite elite prospect back

Judgement Day

2:38

I repeat, did the Red Sox break Judge?

Ben Clemens

2:38

Tell you what: I'm gonna guess no, you can guess yes

let's reconvene in a few months and see

Talfred

2:38

Re: Duran, you refer to good D, but this season he has a negative Defense number on Fangraphs for the fourth time in five years.

Ben Clemens

2:40

well Def includes position, and he's back in left field, which has a below average value. I think it's fair to say that he's a plus outfielder overall, and can handle center; he was definitely a LOT worse early in his career when he was seen as more of a multi-positional guy and was learning to be a full-time outfielder

2:43

I have a lower opinion of his defense than your average analyst, I think - he got a ton of votes for Fielding Bible in CF

but I think he's clearly solid out there

Noah

2:43

What do you think is Bryan Reynolds hypothetical trade value in the midst of a down year? Assuredly "not good", but would you consider the future value of his team team-friendly?

Ben Clemens

2:43

I would not

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