JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/23/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/23/25

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Ben Clemens

2:44

I mean, you're hoping he's an average player going forward

he's been an average player in '22, '23, and '24, much worse than that so far this year

teams don't like paying 8 figures over long time periods for that kind of production

2:45

this is a very different deal than accepting an "overpay" relative to your model values for, say, Rafael Devers

Lowe Distribution System

2:48

The Orioles will surely aim to retool for next year at the deadline. But can any of their trade pieces bring back anyone useful for next year?

Ben Clemens

2:48

I mean, I don't think so

but, I'm not sure they need to, at least directly

we know that the Orioles like 'winning' trades in terms of surplus value, Elias has made several comments to that effecgt

so if they stack up a little value this year, maybe they can then expend some to trade for pieces that will help them win next year?

2:49

that's the theory, at least. right now, the O's have a nice long-term pipeline of talent, and they seem very afraid of dipping into it

but hey, if you make the pipeline better, maybe it can withstand more of a dip

Bosoxforlife

2:49

Very few recognize that Duran was very good in 2023 with an OPS+ of 121. 2024 was not a huge surprise to Red Sox fans but he has, most certainly, been a disappointment this year. I recall him dropping at least 3 fly balls while not providing the dynamic offense the fans expected.

Ben Clemens

2:49

yeah I thought '23 was "good Duran"

and I kind of still do

sometimes people have career years

2:50

but Duran can be a good and valuable contributor without replicating his super high top end season

Chris

2:50

Would you rather have Andy Pages or Heliot Ramos -- real life, not fantasy baseball?

Ben Clemens

2:50

I think I'd prefer Pages because of his defense

2:51

I don't think their bats look all that different, really

I would give the slight edge to Ramos there

but I do not buy Ramos as a center fielder, I watched a lot of him out there last year and he was not good

and that's more of a difference maker to me, given how close I expect them to be with the bat

Matt

2:52

Hey Ben, if someone asked you whether or not Cal Raleigh will hit 50 hrs this year, you'd have to take the under right? What he's doing right now as a catcher is unprecedented, but logically you can't count on him repeating his first half for another 75 games

Ben Clemens

2:52

yeah, agreed

that doesn't mean I don't want to see it, though

we have him RIGHT at 51 homers, so really cuspy

but that's with 321 PA the rest of the way, which I think I'd take the under on, that's just responsible

Josh

2:52

Speaking of Pages, do you foresee him as solidly in your trade value series?

Ben Clemens

2:54

he's certainly in the mix. I gave a run of players to get extended projections on to Dan recently and he was on it. I know that I have, historically, overvalued "good defense, young, having good offensive season" hitters before, so I'm trying to take that into account, but yes, I think he's probably going to be on it

Travis

2:54

Let's say hypothetically Acuna plays a little over 100 games still hitting at his current pace, any chance he wins MVP?

Ben Clemens

2:55

mmmmmm.... honestly, maybe? feels like a relative down year in the NL right now, no meteoric first halves, so no one is running away with it

Half Street

2:56

Is James Wood's improved defense this year (average by OAA, good by DRS) real?

Ben Clemens

2:59

I haven't watched enough to say for SURE but I've upgraded his defense in my head. Partially, that's because I always thought he'd figure it out. It's Bayesian - I had him pegged as a future good defender because he's a great athlete with plus speed.

so seeing something that I expected to happen raises my confidence that it's a real improvement, not just noise

John

2:59

Hi Ben will G Taylor be the full time closer for the white Sox rest of this year and the foreseeable future?

Ben Clemens

2:59

I mean, unless he's bad!

3:00

but he clearly has an easy inside track on it

Hunter

3:00

Reds DFA’d Candelario, where do you think he ends up?

Ben Clemens

3:01

I am really curious about this. Probably a bad team without a 3B, because I think he makes the most sense tehre

maybe the A's send Max Muncy down or make him a utillity gy?

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