JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/26/23

View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. I'm gonna keep this one fast and focused today while I work on the top 50 trade value list - I'm solidly in 'hone and rehone my rankings so that I can turn them over to outside eyes' mode right now

Guest

2:01

Is there any info on when strikeout rate becomes highly predictive for a player’s career stats, in terms or at bats? Subjectively It feels like a guy like Kelenic has crossed a ‘point of no return’, while, say, Volpe still has time

Ben Clemens

2:01

I don't have a great answer for you here b/c I think it depends a lot on how you get to those strikeouts, in addition to just having them

2:02

Players can make approach or swing changes that shift things around later in their career, even. But I do agree that around two seasons in I start to think eh, this might not be fixable'

Matt

2:02

Do you think the Phillies will make the playoffs?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I'm sure this is not the answer you're looking for but I think our odds do a great job, it's a real toss up that will depend on health

Speaking of which:

Matt

2:03

Have you looked at the data to see what might be happening with Harper's power outage?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I have not. It's definitely a possible topic for the weeks ahead, but I'm cognizant of not trying to do too too much in terms of big open ended looks at players while also in my busiest season

I suppose that's a long-winded way of saying 'great question, no clue'

Injured Toe

2:05

Would the Angels be one team that might take Donaldson off the Yankees hands?

Ben Clemens

2:05

They've already taken SO MANY third basemen off of other teams' hands

Tiger Fan

2:06

With word of Jobe’s stellar 2023 debut and newfound cutter, how high could a healthy and dominant season in the low minors jump him in prospect evaluations? The stuff seems intact for a top-50 guy, but I recognize health and proximity matter.

Ben Clemens

2:06

I mean... does that matter? It matters what he does, not what happens to his prospect evaluations

2:07

I'm not exactly a there's no such thing as a pitching prospect guy, but I think I kiiiiind of am? His stuff looks good enough that I think he's gonna get a chance to show it in the big leagues if he stays healthy

Guest!

2:07

Why have the O's under Elias been so much more successful developing hitters than pitchers?

Ben Clemens

2:07

They seem pretty good at developing relievers!

2:08

I don't really know the answer to this, I do think there are sample size issues though. I wouldn't be comfortable saying they can't figure out pitching, but they've had a string of successes on the hititng side for sure

Insert Witty Name Here

2:08

Made a trade in fantasy, wanted to know if you agree with my process. Gave up Strider and Elly for Freeman and Dansby. I’m hedging against Strider getting hurt, ATL will need him for the playoffs, and what happened last year makes me think he’s going for a phantom or maybe even real IL stint for a few weeks. Elly’s value can’t be higher, and his BABIP is way too high for this to be sustainable. Getting Freeman and Swanson gets me a much safer floor, while they’re not at their peak levels, I think I’d be getting a 1st RD talent at my weakest position (1B) and Dansby can get me at least 85% of Elly’s 90th percentile outcome. Sorry for the word vomit, anything you’d disagree or counter with?

Ben Clemens

2:09

I think this makes a lot of sense; I'm not a fantasy expert by any means but 'bank good performances' makes sense to me, particularly b/c I agree with you about the Braves maybe trying to keep Strider fresh

Jeff

2:10

How would you handle the Abreu situation in Houston? Sunk cost, test the trade market?

Ben Clemens

2:11

I don't think so, to be honest. He's been much better in the past month and I think that really matters. The Astros are surely keeping tabs on him but I think giving him a bit more rope makes sense

Rays Fan 5

2:11

When are the rest of the organizational prospect ranking lists going to be released?

Ben Clemens

2:12

As we finish them, which is how this stuff has generally worked

Sonny

2:12

Bryan Bello looks like the first homegrown Red Sox SP since Clay Bucholz. Not a question, just pointing out it took nearly 20 years for one of the richest and most forward thinking orgs to develop a single starting pitcher

Ben Clemens

2:12

Starting pitching is wild, huh?

2:13

No one doubts that the Red Sox are using a lot of resources and trying to develop good starting pitching

they just.... haven't

Bello looks really good though, I'm excited to see some updated ZiPS on him as I keep doing trade value stuff

C-Low

2:13

Thoughts on how Os deploy Westburg and whether Mateo or Frazier get benched?

Ben Clemens

2:16

I could see Frazier getting benched. I don't think they're benching Mateo, his defense is just too important to them

jas

2:16

Given Jordan Walker's batting line, do you think his value is legitimately more than negated by his defense? Things like that seem like they start dipping into context

Ben Clemens

2:17

I don't think it is, but I'm willing to believe that it's close

He's realllllly bad defensively. Like, just abysmal

2:18

I don't think that he'll keep being this level of bad, but his defense is truly hurting the Cardinals a lot

mac

2:18

what would you consider adequate evidence that a team needs different hitting coaches? the yankees lineup having those hitters and the second-lowest OBP in the league, combined with Aaron Hicks instantly reverting to a very good player with new coaches, seem pretty firmly damning of dillon lawson and co.

Ben Clemens

2:20

I basically wouldn't be able to get there without some kind of access to internal data

We just don't have the info we need from the outside

bosoxforlife

2:20

I fell out of my recliner when Maldonado bunted with runners on 1st and 3rd and no outs in the 10th last night. Do you agree that this is a contender for worst attempted play of all time?

Ben Clemens

2:20

I didn't see this play so I'm now going to look it up

Connecting…

Message History

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat