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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/26/23

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Ben Clemens

2:21

Yeesh bases loaded but yeah this was bad

FannyGraphy

2:23

Hello Ben, as hitters age, what is usually the first skill to go? Or is there like a typical order? Like first their Eye, then their contact skills, then their power? Not including fielding or arm or baserunning. Or is it completely player dependent

Ben Clemens

2:23

I think it's pretty close to player dependent, with one big caveat

speed is always decreasing

2:24

there's just no way around that

New UK fan

2:24

I can't help but think of approach in vaguely moralistic terms. It seems like something that a player or prospect could easily fix, if only they'd try just a little bit harder. I assume that's not the case and it's just as hard to fix as, say, in-zone swing-and-miss?

Ben Clemens

2:25

Hard to say for sure, but I'm confident in saying this: these guys are all working tremendously hard for the most part

Sure, could some people try harder? no doubt

but there are millions of dollars at stake

it's a really good motivating factor

2:26

it's wild how hard the average baseball player works

Mike Rizzo

2:26

Lane Thomas seems to be a guy now? With 2.5 seasons left do I sell high or see him as part of my next winner?

Ben Clemens

2:26

this is as sell high as sell high can be imo

2:27

not because I think he'll turn into a pumpkin overnight, but because he certainly might, and meanwhile the Nats aren't gonna be contending that soon anyway

greenfrog

2:27

Do you have any idea why Alek Manoah went from Cy Young candidate last year to a total bust this year at age 25? Seems like stuff, control, confidence all fell off a cliff

Ben Clemens

2:27

I really really do not

I'm having a ton of trouble figuring out what to think about him trade value wise

2:28

I really had him high up the list last year and don't know what to do about it

JHench

2:28

Following Mac’s question, what point does having multiple starters in a long 0-for slump, as the Pirates do (Suwinski, Bae, Hedges, Castro), become an offense indictment of the organization, as opposed to a run of bad luck?

Ben Clemens

2:28

like, a realllllly long time

ehhhh, no, that's not fair

How long does it take to become an indictment of the hitting coach? forever

2:29

how long does it take to become an indictment of the front office? faster

like, they're playing Austin Hedges a lot

2:30

don't get me wrong, that man plays great defense, but clearly he's not a good offensive player, it's not like they were blindsided by that

Sloth

2:30

Where do you stand on Pablo Lopez now that his exciting early-season work has come back down to earth somewhat?

Ben Clemens

2:31

Still very high on him. I think he looks like a solid 2/3 kinda guy, the stuff tick up seems real though I am not convinced he'll ever quite 'pitch to his fip', like I do think there's some hard contact that is hard to ignore there

Evan

2:32

Predictions for who wins AL West? Rangers haven't looked as strong lately and I'm just not buying that the Astros are this mediocre. Plus I refuse to believe Trout will ever get extended playoff experience, as much as it saddens me to say it.

Ben Clemens

2:32

Yeah I kinda lean Astros as weird as it sounds given what the standings look like right now

ScottyW

2:32

Speaking of Hicks... is his performance with Baltimore sustainable? What would his ROS outlook be based solely on his time in BAL this year (admitting SSS)?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Like, obviously it's not?

2:33

I regret to inform you that Aaron Hicks is not a true-talent 161 wRC+ hitter

2:34

I've been meaning to write about Hicks, I'll find a way to sooner rather than later I think

Dusty's Wristband

2:34

Martín Maldonado hasn't posted 1 war since 2018. What's kept him on the Astros roster for so long? Is it just intangibles?

James

2:34

The real question re: Maldonado is why he was batting at all in a late and close situation. Did Yainer Diaz kick Dusty's dog?

Ben Clemens

2:35

Yeah they just seem to value his game calling and other hard to quantify catching skills way more than we as outside observers do

I think they're wrong, for the record

Will

2:35

Regarding the Orioles' relative success with hitters rather than pitchers, it is important to note that their starters have improved tremendously, and that both Gibson and Lyles have been much better for them than for other teams in recent years. And that they have spent all their early draft picks on hitters. I think the pitching program has been pretty successful--you noted the relievers already.

Ben Clemens

2:36

Yeah, decent point

Tel

2:36

Additional evidence on poor hitting coaches by Yankees - Volpe figuring out the problem with his swing while watching video over dinner with his minor league buddy (a problem even noticed by John Smoltz on a FOX broadcast a couple of weeks before) while the Yankees hitting coaches hadn't figured it out (apparently - could also be Volpe not listening)

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