JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/27/22

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:28

By the way, that whole 'learn to play the outfield' thing?

In a word, nope!

2:29

He played only 80 innings of LF in the minors this year, against 357 of short. The Pirates still believe that Cruz is a major league shortstop. They just also believe in service time manipulation. Don't buy their story that he's an outfielder

Run Flagstaff

2:29

is Cody Bellinger simply a good defensive outfielder with some occasional power at this point? Seems we have enough data suggesting he is about as likely to recapture his 2019 form as the dinosaurs are to walk the earth again

Ben Clemens

2:30

Yeah, that's basically where I'm at with Bellinger. I do think he'll cut down on strikeouts a bit from here, he's shown that he has that in his toolkit, but I don't think the prodigious power is going to return

2:31

I have him as a nice defensive outfielder, like you said. That's a useful player, although not one who would get a contract like he currently has

DEEG

2:31

How can you not be pedantic about your favorite baseball website?

Ben Clemens

2:31

What a great EW segment, btw

Yordan Alvarez

2:31

Sure slashing .411/.494/.822 this month is fun, but the real question is this: am I a better left fielder than Juan Soto?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Nah, I think Soto is a better outfielder. I'm definitely enjoying seeing Yordan in the field and playable, though

Guest

2:32

Altuve having another sneaky good year. 159 wRC+. Is he solidifying a HoF case (assuming another ~5 "good" years, scandal notwithstanding)?

Ben Clemens

2:33

Yes. For me, Altuve is a Hall of Famer if he closes out his career with reasonable numbers

I don't think this should actually be close. Give him a bit of a knock for the scandal if you'd like, but he's got the peak, at only 32 he should comfortably clear the career contributions mark, and he's also just an iconic player of the era

2:34

The Altuve/Judge MVP race was really fun, the 2015 Astros making the playoffs with a giant shortstop and tiny second baseman was a really cool 'oh hey baseball takes all types' moment, and I don't see how you can tell the story of baseball since 2010 without Altuve

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:34

Gut feeling: inconsistency, insofar as it compresses negative events, is valuable for players. The change in win probability from the first home run your reliever gives up is big. By the time they give up the fourth one, it's not moving the needle. Similarly, you'd rather your hitters spread out their goodness instead of running up the score in a game they've already Scooter Gennett-ed.
WPA simulations for two artificial players who are high/no variance who reach the same WAR may or may not be practical, but you could look at historical data, bin people up by WAR, and then look at the relationship between consistency and WPA. That said, I don't know how much it matters for most real people instead of the fake extreme ones we can make in the virtual baseball lab.

Ben Clemens

2:35

Yeah totally agreed. I just don't think the real-life variation in inconsistency is big enough to matter

Matt

2:35

This is kinda of a crazy question.....but with him back in MVP form, is it possible Manny Machado opts out after 2023? He'll still be in line for $190M

Ben Clemens

2:35

Oooooh!

2:36

So I think that if he is the MVP this year and has a 6-7 WAR season next year (this is a big if), my opt out model would say he should. But I think he'll either not opt out or do the Kershaw thing where you negotiate an extra year in exchange for not using the opt out, because he seems to love playing on the Padres and especially love mentoring Tatis

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow

2:36

So what is your favorite farm fresh vegetable?

Ben Clemens

2:36

I went to an amazing farmstand yesterday in North Bay, and so this will be tough, but I think I'll go with sweet corn

2:37

This place was incredible, though. We ran up a silly bill after initially planning on getting just some lettuce and brocolli (I'm making lettuce wraps later this week) because everything we ate was so dang good

2:38

Tomatoes are also a strong contender, though. I feel like a lot of people have only had store tomatoes, and fresh tomatoes taste quite a bit different

Adjustments

2:38

Given the steep learning curve for a lot of top prospects debuting the past couple of years, should noncontending teams try to promote guys in, say, August to let them work through hiccups this year? Thinking of Gunnar Henderson if he continues his AAA tear.

Ben Clemens

2:39

I think that would be a good decision if your goal was to maximize the chances of reaching the playoffs in the next 5 years

I think that ownership would look at you like you had 6 heads

Bring our prospects up when we definitely won't be winning? And speed up their arbitration clocks? And pay them more money? And we aren't winning? I imagine that's something like what they would say

So I think it's a good idea but the way the Orioles are run, I'm skeptical

2:40

They're merciless about capturing financial edges. Why would they switch tracks right now?

Philadumpster Fire

2:40

If Harper is out for the better part of the year, that's basically it for the Phils (already longshot) playoff odds right? No real prospect depth to deal from for replacements and nobody in the AAA/bench slots who look like they could actually contribute over any meaningful stretch.

Ben Clemens

2:40

It certainly doesn't feel *good*, but I don't think they're done by any stretch of the imagination

2:41

If they go 5-0 in their next five games, that's something like 2.5 extra wins (relative to their pace) right there

That's not a ton less than you'd expect for Harper over the next two months

2:42

Stars matter in baseball, but with so many teams making the playoffs and with a half-ish season in the books, some random rookie catching fire could make up more of Harper's contributions than you think. It still hurts their chances quite a bit... I'd estimate it makes them 3-4 wins worse the rest of the year in expectation -- but I don't think we'd be calling the Phillies out of it if we subtracted four wins and gave them Harper back, so we shouldn' call them out of it now

DEEG

2:42

I'd stump for fresh zucchini

Ben Clemens

2:42

Another good one, and another one we bought yesterday!

Dan’l

2:43

Brendan Donovan or Edman?

Ben Clemens

2:43

Edman by a fair bit. I really like Donovan's plate discipline, and think that he has a future as a utility guy, but I don't think he's a plus hitter long-term, he just doesn't do enough damage on impact. And if he's not, then give me the defender, which is Edman by a huge margin. Edman is an absolutely superlative defender and Donovan looks stretched to me. Edman's bat might also just be better...

Potential ALCS

2:44

Did you have any takeaways from the weekend series between Yankees and Astros?

Ben Clemens

2:44

I have one major takeaway: boy is it fun to watch great teams play each other

Connecting…