JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/27/22

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Nicstone

2:44

Are teams figuring out Nestor Cortes Jr.'s cutter? He's starting to give up Hr's at an alarming pace.

Ben Clemens

2:45

If I were the Yankees, I'd be worried about that. I don't think they expected him to pitch at a Cy Young clip all season, and I sitll think he's going to give them valuable innings, but you have to be a little bit worried that the magical run is over and he's back to just being an innings eater

planetdust

2:45

All the refrigeration really damages the flavor of store tomatoes

If you are growing your own tomatoes, though, you can pick them when they have started to turn color and they will ripen just fine. This is worth doing IMO because it limits the stuff that can go wrong while they are out there growing on the fine (efffects of inconsistent water if it rains too much/too little, birds/squirrels eating them, etc)

Ben Clemens

2:46

See, this is the kind of breadth of expertise I love in FanGraphs readers. I don't have space to grow my own tomatoes, but I have some friends who do, and they're pretty good. If you live out in the burbs, though, watch out for deer. My mom had to give up growing tomatoes because deer kept eating them

Bat

2:46

What kind of contract do you see Nimmo getting in the offseason? His agent is Boras.

Ben Clemens

2:48

Nimmo will be 30 next year. I think he'll stay with the Mets for a nice but not unbelievable sum. Maybe something like the Chris Taylor deal, 4/60? I'm personally higher on Nimmo than that, but his skillset -- fringey CF, gets a lot of his value from his eye, fringe power -- doesn't scream to me for a huge deal

I thikn he's gonna keep getting on base a ton, but you have to at least be a little worried about the decline in walk rates this year. That said, maybe he's a better defender than I give him credit for, and that's definitely the place where I'm least sure of my evaluation

Joe

2:49

I had to build actual cages around my fruiting garden plants to keep them safe from raccoons and squirrels

M's Fan

2:49

Thoughts on the "Brawl"?

Ben Clemens

2:49

I'd enjoy baseball more if there were fewer brawls, and also less time spent discussing them

Adam123566

2:49

Hey Ben! Berrios or Baz this week. Berrios has TB, Baz has MIL and TOR

Ben Clemens

2:49

Baz for me. Starting against hte Brewers is good for your ERA, and two starts is nice

chilly

2:50

1-10 how worried should we be about giolito? this recent stretch reminds me of his pre breakout days

Ben Clemens

2:52

I'm like a 5 out of 10 worried. The walk rate going up so much is scary, and both of his best secondaries have just been off this year. They're mis-sequenced at times, the slider seems to have less bite (he's made it sweepier but lost some velo, which seems like a bad trade to me), and anecdotally it feels like he's hanging the changeup too much

2:53

On the other hand, he has a .360 BABIP, so clearly there's some bad luck involved

2:54

He's also giving up 20% HR/FB

Some of that is hanging those changeups and will be fixed but, yeah, get worried

Keeper

2:54

In a Keeper league, would you rather have a $14 Bichette or a $5 Witt? I’m going for it but also want to be mindful of future value as well

Ben Clemens

2:54

Witt for me

Remax

2:54

Where should Benintendi start apartment shopping?

Ben Clemens

2:54

Philly

chilly

2:55

re: giolito, i just took a look at his splits. rh slugging 700 off him w a 465woba. thats insane babip notwithstanding

Ben Clemens

2:55

He has at times been too in love with the right/right changeup

Game calling

2:55

Do you have a method of evaluating it?

Ben Clemens

2:55

Absolutely not. I wish I did, but it's just not a puzzle I've gotten close to cracking

Sonny

2:55

How much does winning a world series after a brutal rebuild benefit a franchise owner? The Cubs winning in 2016 might have fundamentally altered the equation but for a team like Pittsburgh or Baltimore is there a significant enough long-term benefit to 'maximizing our window?' How much more money does Bob Nutting have if the Pirates win the 2026 WS?

Ben Clemens

2:55

It has way more to do with making money every year

2:56

The Pirates are raking it in. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette did an excellent study of this that I'm going to link

https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2022/04/10/pirates-ticket-...

Paywalled, I paid the 99c for it because it was so dang good

Basically, Pirates payroll mostly matches the money they make in attendance plus concessions

Turns out you get TV money and revenue sharing in baseball, too

So by keeping the payroll so low, what the hell does Nutting care if they win a World Series?

Judge

2:57

How many home runs do I end up with?

Ben Clemens

2:57

(I dunno, not really my bag to predict stuff like this, but that's a fun random number)

Bat

2:58

Mad Max will have another rehab start on Tues in Binghamton and Alvarez will presumably catch him - do the Mets ask Scherzer for his thoughts on a direct promotion from Bing to NYC for Alvarez and heed his advice if he provides an endorsement?

Ben Clemens

2:58

I'm sure he'll offer it regardless, but I'm sure they'll ask him

I don't think that they should take Scherzer's word as the final say one way or the other, but it's definitely a valuable data point

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