JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/3/2024

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/3/2024

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Ben Clemens

2:15

I was having this discussion with my wife over the weekend actually

she has the same vibe as you

I think that his command has been shaky enough that it never FEELS good even when he's comfortably converting

Oaktown Blues

2:16

Zack Gelof was due for some regression after his huge debut, but he has totally fallen flat so far this year. Are you still a believer?

Ben Clemens

2:19

Hm, I'm perusing through his numbers here and I think I'm as much of a believer as I was last year

Or, you know, less b/c he's been bad, but not a lot less

his underlying skills don't seem to have changed a ton, he's the same high strikeout high effort guy from last year, he just isn't hitting the ball hard enough at the moment

JOHNNYHELLER

2:19

Thanks for doing these chats! So helpful. I need to make room on my roster (NL 10 team 5x5) for PCA. I have B Perkins at $1 and either he or Tauchman need to go (N Jones is back soon too).
Do I except an offer for an end of contract Suwinski -hoping he starts hitting again - for Perkins or search for a better deal? SBs are at a premium
thanks!

Ben Clemens

2:20

I too am wondering what to do about suwinski, I have him in Ottoneu. It's hard to have a lot of trust given that, you know, he's in the minors and striking out 44% of the time

2:21

If you can get a bonus roster spot b/c he's not active, that seems great. but I'd rather have Perkins than Suwinski so that's the only reason I'd do it

Doug

2:22

What would Vlad command in FA..his power has disappeared he has 5 homers and has become a 110 EV singles hitter

Ben Clemens

2:22

I'm so curious

I think he'd be a pillow contract guy

Matt Chapman deal or something

2:23

He's a valuable player

but kind of like Pete Alonso's upcoming free agency, how much the brand name matters is an open question

Chris

2:24

Aaron Judge had a 49% barrel rate in May

Ben Clemens

2:24

That's just silly

Who's Fabio?

2:24

Hi Ben - just wondering if you accept solicitations for your 5 things weekly? Vlad Jr.'s head first slides are super fun to watch and I think he had one on the weekend but I forget which game. What do you think?

Ben Clemens

2:24

If I don't, I should

that sounds great, and I'll definitely look into it

Bob

2:24

Watching the Cubs lately has been brutal. Are they really this bad or just unlucky?

Tom

2:25

can Masyn Winn be as beloved (and valuable) as Ozzie Smith?

Ben Clemens

2:25

Let's do both b/c I was thinking about Cards/Cubs and picked these

eh, the Cubs are getting unlucky of late but it's not like they're great. Not an amazing offense and their bullpen is atrocious

2:26

BaseRUns thinks they should be 28-32, for example

Cube Jockey

2:26

Let's say there was evidence of Hank Aaron hitting 8 HRs during the period of time that NL state are incorporated. Does MLB still incorporate NL stats if it means changing the all time HR leader?

Ben Clemens

2:26

Yeah, I think they would jump at the chance

do you know how badly they wish it was noble Hank Aaron instead of everyone hates him Barry Bonds?

Concerned Bird

2:26

Do you take Judge or the field for the HR title this year? It was kind of him to give everyone else a head start, but he seems poised to leave my mustachioed masher in the dust.

Ben Clemens

2:26

Yeah I'd take Judge

random Colorado guy

2:26

Question about the implementation of Elo ratings here, from someone who used to be a very strong chessplayer and directed lots of rated chess tournaments. How is this system going to handle the influx of replacement-level talent when rosters expand? Who's the FG expert on this implementation? I could bore you with some highly technical questions about the FG system and some concerns that I have, but would rather take that offline if know who to take it to.

Ben Clemens

2:27

It's basically not; we have a very simple implementation of Elo and it's designed to be that way. We want to keep it separate from our projection models, which incorporate estimates of that replacement-level talent, because that's a separate factor in the power rankings

but the whole point of going to Elo was to care about the games that had been played

Princess Leia

2:28

Help us Obi-Wan Clemonobi! You're our only hope!

Keep Royce Lewis from any more freak injuries, master Jedi!

Ben Clemens

2:28

You want the impossible!

Appa Yip Yip

2:28

The Vlad/Bo era of Jays baseball is kinda feeling like one big wet fart. What happened?

Ben Clemens

2:28

I dunno what's going on with Bo

the guy is the streakiest hitter around

2:29

but yeah, chalk this one up to bad development variance. I think the Jays have done a good job supplementing their core with talent, though trading Gabriel Moreno instead of finding some way to trade Kirk looks like it's going to haunt them. But they spent and traded

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