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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/3/2024

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Ben Clemens

2:31

and like.... Vlad just never could consistently hit the ball in the air and Bichette puts up 4.5 WAR every year but in the strangest ways

Pete

2:31

I've heard a lot of talk that the return for Alonso would be pretty light and they may consider keeping him, having him reject the QO and only get a 4th round draft pick. However, couldn't there be a bidding war between multiple teams (3 or more) in need of a 1B at the deadline, sweetening the package for the Mets?

Ben Clemens

2:31

I mean, it could! Hard to predict a market dynamic like that ahead of time

And if that happens, they'd probably do it

2:32

One thing I'm really not sure about is whether the Mets are hoping to keep Alonso and re-sign him at a mid-tier deal

2:33

I've heard that basically he doesn't want one, he wants a superstar contract, and hey, he might get it

but if the Mets trade him, they're probably closing the door on being a convenient landing place if his market doesn't develop like he hoped

Nic

2:33

This feels embarrassing to even ask, but has Soto suprised you with how good he has been this year? I mean, I knew he was good. But 190 WRC+ is another level of good

Ben Clemens

2:33

No, but I've been really high on Soto for a long time

I think that it has surprised people in general

One of the years where I did bold predictions, I had Soto putting up a 200 wRC+ for the year

2:34

like, the guy has the best batting eye in baseball and won the home run derby

Dugan

2:34

What do you think Yariel Rodriguez's outlook is for this season? How about beyond- SP or RP in the future?

Ben Clemens

2:35

I think that he should probably relieve

2:36

But I think that having him with the ability to do both is really important to the Jays

bosoxforlife

2:36

I can't get off of the idea that the Orioles have to give a lot but they must go after Garrett Crochet. It looks like a perfect opportunity to move some of the excess talent and the White Sox have to do something. Would Kierstad and Mayo be enough? too much?

romorr

2:36

I flip back and forth here. Elias went big with Burnes, so I wonder if he will do so again at the deadline. We know he likes his prospects. But then again, Burnes is here for just 1 year, so in a way...

Ben Clemens

2:38

I think that Kjerstad and Mayo is probably more than it would take, but it's not off by a ton. Crochet is going to be one of the hottest tickets tehre is if the Sox are trading him

I think that the O's are well set up to deal from prospects, but if I were them, I'd be choosy

2:39

Like, they don't need to get just any random pitcher. I think that Crochet is the kind of guy they should be targeting

Rob Manfred

2:39

Hi Ben. Has anyone to your knowledge done any analysis into what the average number of "bad starts" are on average till an SP is demoted or moved into a reliever role? Bad starts meaning something completely arbitrary

Ben Clemens

2:39

No but that sounds interesting?

Luke l.

2:39

I know Jared Jones had a tougher and shorter outing recently, but what (other than that) makes you suspect he isn’t built up for a full season? He pitched 126 last year and 122 the year before. What is a reasonable expectation? 145? 155?

Ben Clemens

2:39

Just his velo dips as the game goes on

they've gotten slightly more extreme of late

and like, fifth inning he's 93-95, that's not the same guy as the beginning of the year

2:40

he's clearly a max effort type, throws his hardest in the first inning, but i've been surprised by the magnitude of velo dropoff

Ben

2:40

If you airdropped Andrew Friedman and the rest of the Dodgers’ front office (or your front office of choice) into the Rockies organization, do you think they’d be able to develop a pitching pipeline capable of long term success at Coors? Or is this just an intractable problem irrespective of the front office working to address it?

Ben Clemens

2:41

Great question, dont' really know the answer but ownership certainly plays a part in this as well

so that makes the whole thing really tricky

Christian

2:43

Should the Mariners consider the $20 mil left on Garver's contract a lost cause and trade for a DH with a wRC+ over 80?

Ben Clemens

2:43

Nah, I think I'd run with him

I need to see more to think he's definitely a lemon

Idiotic Failson

2:44

What does Clay Holmes next contract look like, and will it be the Yankees that offer it? He looks like he's going to get paid, and Hal made some noise about unsustainable payrolls, something there has to break.

Ben Clemens

2:44

Yeah I think they're gonna let him leave

He's been awesome, but I think that realistically, they are more likely to develop good relievers than good any other position

2:45

and they're money constrained at least a little bit

so that's a smart place to cut back imo. it's playing the numbers

ZOMG Skenes

2:45

So Skenes is good ya? Plus Jones the Pirates have a formidable front line of pitching. A good bat or two and the Pirates are instant contenders. I mean look how much better they have been with Nick Gonzalez running .300/.360/.500 out there. Can the lineup be fixed this season, either by callups or trades, or are they going to "let it ride" this season and (hopefully, maybe) be more aggressive next offseason? How often do teams get blessed with two aces? F'ing go for it is what I say.

Ben Clemens

2:45

I completely agree with this

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