JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/3/2024

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/3/2024

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Ben Clemens

2:57

almost everyone is under!

baseball is hard and people fail. Gunnar Henderson is the exception not the rule

Guest

2:57

would you worry in advance about the coaches/player dev/org as, say, a hitter going to Pittsburgh, or wait until you got there?

Ben Clemens

2:57

I'd wait until I got there

2:58

look, from the outside, this is just rumors and mumbling

and not only that, but teams are constantly changing

how many teams do you think are using AI assistance in planning workouts and the like these days? Probably most

2:59

how will that affect the quality of the training you receive? Way too soon to tell

Steve O

2:59

Fill in the blank. Anthony Volpe is a ___ WAR player moving forward.

Ben Clemens

2:59

PO

as in a POWAR player

I'm gonna put him where I always have, as a yearly borderline all star

so call it a 3.5-4 WAR/600 player

Guest

2:59

even Gunnar needed a month to get going last year. well, he really just needed me to trade him in a keeper league on May 9, 2023

Ben Clemens

2:59

Another great point: it's too soon to tell!

cesar

2:59

Who are some acquisition targets for Guardians? What do they need to be WS caliber club?

Ben Clemens

3:00

You're never gonna believe this, but they could use some outfield help

3:01

Also I think it would be wise to add a pitcher of at least marignal playoff value

I'm not really sure how much they can count on from Gavin Williams this year, and the staff is just thin

ZOMG Skenes

3:01

I sure wish the Pirates spent the $25 mil or whatever they blew on Rowdy Roddy + Michael A Taylor + Chapman differently. I have no words for why Tellez is still in the lineup

Ben Clemens

3:02

Yeah, I've got nothing for you there

It's wild to me that they think he's still their best option

WAR

3:02

"Bichette puts up 4.5 WAR every year but in the strangest ways." Are you saying not all contributing factors to WAR are created equal?

Ben Clemens

3:02

I mean, I surely regress defensive value a bit when I'm looking at WAR

3:03

but no, what I mean is he does it by hitting .175 for a month and then being the best player in baseball the next month. or with great baserunning, or terrible baserunning despite good speed and BABIP

he's wildly streaky, is my point

Guest

3:04

As you said, most prospects have underperformed expectations, but who is one that has overperformed that we should keep an eye on?

Ben Clemens

3:04

Joey Ortiz, Jared Jones, Davis Schneider, Michael Busch

Ben

3:04

If hitting prospects end up being more variable than previously thought, with their adjustment to major league pitching a lot less predictable, that could shift some of the prospect value back toward pitchers, even with their known demographic risk. Curious to know if those discount rates are already beginning to shift.

Ben Clemens

3:04

I disagree with this premise

3:05

I think they're as variable as I've always thought

the point of that Derek Carty mention is that he sends this out every year

every year

bosoxforlife

3:05

Wilyer Abreu. He has been excellent.

Ben Clemens

3:05

Wenceel Perez too

Lot of dudes hitting this year

Guest

3:05

Is replacement value rc+ 100 or close to it?

Ben Clemens

3:05

no, it's around 70. being an average hitter is meaningfully above replacement level

ask the Pirates! they'd kill for some average hitters

Jeff McNeil

3:05

What happens to me this season? Do I get moved at the deadline?

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