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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/3/26

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Azizal

12:46

My apologies but you got my question wrong. I pointed out Dodgers 50 FV prospects are more likely to make it vs. Angels. That is not overrating/underrating by grade, that is a fact of graduation rates. Something that varies significantly by system. How can you disagree that graduation rates don't vary significantly by system? Or was I simply unclear?

Ben Clemens

12:46

I am saying that prospect valuation is difficult and contextual

and that people disagree on what prospect valuation even means

12:47

I think I'd argue that the fact that I answered your question in good faith and you responded with 'how can you disagree with' something that I didn't even answer while trying very hard to answer your first one

shows that this isn't so obvious, blatant, etc. as you think it is

Person

12:47

shaw on rehab, i'm sure he and ramirez are going to fight very hard to keep chicago's "young guy who gets 5 PA a week" slot

Ben Clemens

12:47

lol

warpath

12:47

Royce Lewis is mashing in AAA after the demotion. What do you see in the future for him? Trade, given a chance to start again, left to hang in AAA for a while?

Ben Clemens

12:47

given a chance to start again

I think that they have to

12:48

what's the downside here? we know the top-end talent is there, at least maybe

Robert Stewart

12:48

Is the 'Story' over in Boston?

Ben Clemens

12:48

yeah, I think this is it

the phantom/lingering IL placement is always a sign that things are coming to an end

Oliver

12:48

What do you think about The Miz carrying velo so late into games? Feels like I should be concerned but also he's also throwing down numbers that put him in 2019 Cole/2020 Bieber range if he even somewhat keeps them up for the best season in 10 years

Ben Clemens

12:48

yeah, I don't know. I'm just enjoying the ride for now

12:49

It's tricky because I don't have a lot of great comps to how he throws, what should be hard on him, etc.

he's a pretty big outlier in more ways than one

Seuss2004

12:49

Sanchez won pitcher of the month over Miz. I don't think there was a WRONG answer for this one, just disappointing that only one can win. Would you have done the same? The difference between 0 and 1 run is literally as small as it can get, and while I love Cristopher pitching deeper into games than anyone rn, the dominance and unhittability of Miz is a level up.

Ben Clemens

12:49

yeah I just can't be moved to care

they're both amazing

there's enough baseball content without this fake controversy

I like watching them both!

hope they face off in the playoffs

Jeremy Fox

12:49

Odds that Sanchez breaks the consecutive scoreless innings record? Also, while people are definitely talking about Sanchez's streak, I feel like they're not talking about it enough? Hersheiser's record isn't quite DiMaggio's hitting streak in terms of its place in baseball's collective consciousness, but it's a pretty famous record, and Sanchez has gotten most of the way to it.

Ben Clemens

12:49

yeah, under-discussed for sure

12:50

I think it's because Joe Dimaggio is so famous, and baseball had a bigger place int he american consciousness when he did his

they made a Simon and Garfunkel song about him, you know?

"Oratin' Orel has left and gone away" would probably make the record more popular

Azizal

12:51

I pointed out I may have been unclear, dude. You still haven't actually answered the question, that's why I asked again, and it was in good faith. It's not bad faith to re-ask especially when suggesting I may have asked wrong, and I started with "my apologies". I'm not criticizing, I'm clarifying.

Ben Clemens

12:51

in that case, I'll say this

I don't see a lot of evidence of prospect graduation rates and outcomes being super predictive from year to year, and certainly not from system to system

12:52

I think that asserting that would basically blow up any idea of valuation. if every single valuation is team context dependent, well, then there's no valuation model. Or at least, you can't throw a number on it, you know? No fungibility at that point.

Maybe that's true?

It sounds incredibly mathematically difficult

I can tell you that it's incredibly mathematically difficult to approximate the value of a 45 FV prospect, period

12:53

before you get into having 30 different curves for 30 different teams. what kind of data would you even build these on? should you change them as the situations above them change, or the situations of the farm system?

My view is that this question is really hard! and that stating that anything about it is obvious is probably wrong. because pretty much nothing about it is

I've actually been thinking about prospect valuation a ton recently, too, like I said. I just don't see what you're saying as a reasonable or even possible way to handle this

Jeremy Fox

12:54

Adolis Garcia is cooked, just like everyone predicted. What should the Phillies do? Maybe find a cheap defensive whiz outfielder? If you're going to punt on a lineup spot, which is effectively what the Phillies are doing with Garcia, you should at least get great defense in exchange.

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