JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/3/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/3/26

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Ben Clemens

12:54

yeah, I think this is about right

the good news is, the trade deadline always has a lot of replacements like this available

K’d Cavalli

12:54

re:system variance - I think the “change of scenery” aspect of prospects panning out by system is much truer than one system being more adept than another. Curtis Mead is mashing with the Nats after failing with the Rays, but I don’t think anyone is calling the Nats development team “better” than Tampa. Some coaches see players better, some players find tweaks purely coincidentally in a new system.

Ben Clemens

12:54

this is definitely a thing, and I would argue that it's what makes it hard to model things like Azizal is talking about

12:55

there's so much variance, and also so much variance in how farm systems are run, needs up the pipeline, trades, whatever

that whatever you think you're measuring is often nois

really difficult to know what to do with all of this. Honestly, it's such a thorny question

12:56

I'm obviuosly mainly focused on the major league side, and I see how much work Eric and Brendan and co do in getting the proispect rankings right that it feels overwhelming to contribute a ton

but a valuation model? I can do that. And as it turns out, it's a really cool system where also there is a big lack of data (historical rankings) and a long lag time on seeing how good you are

12:57

so fun problem to solve. but different per-team valuations? not gonna happen on my watch

HappyFunBall

12:57

re: Piggybacks. On the other hand, getting a senior vet like Luis Castillo on board makes it so much easier to execute the plan with literally everyone else

Ben Clemens

12:57

very true

although I'm sure he's not ultra pleased with it, you know?

manowargs

12:58

Re Prospects: This is the sort of thing that I think player comments deal with a lot better than ordinal rankings/FV values.

Ben Clemens

12:58

yeah, this is probably a better way of saying what I was saying

quantifying this? essentially impossible

noting it? should be done

I feel like the 'read the comments, don't just skim the rankings' warning that content creators the world over say before people skim their rankings is particularly true in baseball

12:59

but people do just skim the rankings anyway. which is why we are redoing prospect valuation, haha

K’d Cavalli

12:59

How long does Dylan Crews have to perform poorly before the Nationals stop giving him every-day opportunities? New regime, less ties, etc

Ben Clemens

12:59

oh man, this is a fascinating subplot to the Nats' season

he hasn't even been good in the minors!

1:00

I don't have a good answer for you

Like, at least the rest of this year, I think

he's a number two pick. still only 24. huge tools.

but yeah, boy, good thing they aren't truly contending, he's been killing them!

K’d Cavalli

1:01

Do you believe in Crews long-term still?

Ben Clemens

1:01

i mean, I don't think it's a binary yes/no

I think tehre's still a decent chance he works out

obviously you have to lower your odds based on his poor performance so far. but you'd be crazy to not take the chance, imo

warpath

1:01

On the trade deadline: We're getting to the point where clear buyers and sellers tend to start to emerge, but especially in the American League it seems like a lot of teams are still in the murky middle. Do you foresee a slower trade market because a lot of teams think they still have a shot?

Ben Clemens

1:01

yeah. I think we've been headed that way with expanded playoffs and this is a particularly muddled year

on the other hand, that might mean a ton of movement at the very end, which would be fun

1:02

be right back, gotta run to the door for a delivery

1:05

back

Aaron

1:05

I think basically regardless of how the next two months play out, the Cubs should stand pat. They don't have any players who will net a meaningful return, and their holes would cost the entire farm and some of the MLB roster to fill. I get it's an aging roster in a win-now window, but they are just ... not a real WS threat. Thoughts?

Ben Clemens

1:05

I don't really think I agree with 'not a real WS threat'

lot of good players, just gotta see if they gel right

but yeah, I do agree that they should stand pat. also like, they're half a game out of a playoff spot. it's not like they've collapsed

1:06

they've had a crazy season! all those early pitching injuries, the hot streak, the cold streak

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