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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/8/26

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Ben Clemens

2:25

I think I might even agree with them on that

2:26

It depends who's available. But I think that the Brewers have a really smart way of looking at prospect value over time, particularly when you consider their other constraints, and that it would behoove them to stick with it unless they are very sure that things line up on the rewards for zagging instead of zigging

bosoxforlife

2:26

I don't understand why the Red Sox should wait until the deadline to move their very useful trade candidates. Gray Chapman, and Contreras should get a better return if moved quickly.

Ben Clemens

2:27

I think that you have to at least consider that the front office might be under pressure to make the playoffs this year

2:28

I agree with you that I'd be interested in at least talking to a lot of teams about jumping the queue and moving guys now

but if you think that a teardown comes iwth Breslow being replaced, well...

and to be clear, by teardown, I just mean for 2026. They're not trading the long-term pieces almost no matter what

and the Duran trade window is well and truly closed for now

Phillip Denny

2:29

What's your favorite idiom/every day vernacular that has baseball origins? (i.e. out of left field, batting a thousand, etc).

Ben Clemens

2:30

I don't know if this counts as everyday but my wife has started using 'little league home run' in non-baseball contexts, like when something good happens but it's b/c of a bunch of nonsense and not because you actually deserved it

separately, I like 'the closer' for a lot of things, and referring to going to the bullpen or that kind of stuff in many contexts. taking care of a baby, a pet, whatever

Seuss2004

2:30

According to the defensive metrics used here, Bryce Harper's defense has devolved this season from roughly average to Hot Trash. Any idea what's behind this?

Ben Clemens

2:31

no, and wow yeah

it's across both systems, it's a really big number

let's dive in slightly

2:32

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bryce-harper-547180?stats...

Savant has some really fun ways to break down fielding. So Harper's estimated success rate hasn't budged much in his time at first. 70, 72, 69, 69 over the last four years

as in, he's getting about the same difficulty of plays. But he's converted 72, 74, 69, 64% of them

so converting far fewer than he used to. Big problem appears to be going laterally towards third, as in away from teh bag

2:33

and that's consistent over 2025 and 2026. So like, range to his right? Seems to be a big issue for him. I'd expect some of this to be small sample noise, defense is noisy, but there's enough of a signal over two years that I'd be a bit worried

K’d Cavalli

2:33

Do you put any stock into something like Skubal looking enormous post-surgery or is it more of a “until it inhibits him I could care less” idea?

Ben Clemens

2:33

yeah, the second

My general rule is that it's easy to get information overload in baseball and I barely even know what makes a pitcher good out of actual stats

2:34

so anecdotal evidence about how they look has to be way down my list

Matthew Tobin

2:34

Is there any chance Houston moves sooner rather than later in trading Yordan? I mean he is healthy NOW, so you probably want to start kicking the tires before he suddenly isn't. He could command a massive return that Houston needs to kickstart the rebuild.

Ben Clemens

2:34

I dont' have any inside dirt here at all, but my assumption is no

trade Yordan Alvarez? That is like REALLY giving up

2:35

he'd be more of a prize than Skubal if he were on the market, maybe? Like, not a lot of worry that he'll hit if he's healthy, and two more years after this one, both at great rates?

2:36

I think that if you saw it, it'd be the kind of thing that was happening quietly for many weeks that we'd never heard about. I think that generally speaking, in-season is not the place for big long-term control trades. Soto is the main one I can think of happening recently, generally speaking teams like to wait for the winter so that they can negotiate at a deliberate pace

comedicgamble

2:36

Royals fan here, trying to figure how to feel, top 2-3 in QS, top 5 in hard hit and we suck. Running bad or nah, coach and hitting coach need to go, etc? I feel like JJ wins every trade and hasn’t saddled us w any bad deals (could have w Santander/Profar)

Ben Clemens

2:37

I mean, I think that just goes to show you that hard hit rate is not a great measure of offense

or at least, not one you can solely rely on

given that the Mets, Royals, and Phillies are all in the top 5 this year and not doing well

that said, winning every trade is fine, but that probably means you aren't doing enough trades

2:38

and never signing any deals might mean you avoid the bad deals, but you also don't sign a ton of good ones

like, you have to agree that this year's offseason was basically 'do nothing'

sign Starling Marte, trade for Isaac Collins

2:39

when you have a 93 wrC+ in 2025 and then add Starling Marte and Isaac Collins, that's how you have a 90 wRC+ in 2026

2:40

now, there are constraints to think of. The Royals aren't going to spend infi, they have to think about long-term implications and so on. But don't mistake 'not doing anything' for 'doing all the right things' is what I'd say

Matthew VanWinkle

2:40

I can imagine there being a lot of possible answers to this, but what has been the biggest contributor to closing the Duran trade window? Declining performance? Unrealistic asking price? Dwindling remaining team control?

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