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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/8/26

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Ben Clemens

2:40

yes

I mean, I think it's 1 and 2 combining

I think that basically it's fine to hang a high asking price on someone and be fine keeping them

2:41

but you're implicitly saying that if they decline, that's cool, you accept that risk

well...

bosoxforlife

2:41

One of the stories this year has been the resurrection of the post prospect, or bust to use the proper term. Jordan Walker leads the list with Mickey Moniak not far behind and even J. J. Bleday has shown a pulse. I will put Kyle Harrison in a slightly different tier but two franchises sent him packing and nobody, but nobody, saw this coming.

Ben Clemens

2:41

there was a BP article from Jeff Paternostro earlier this year that was titled something along the lines of 'never wrong, only early'

about Walker

and like.... yeah, it's really fun!

2:42

not that these guys will always pan out later. but it's a good reminder that you don't need to be the kid from Toy Story and toss things away if they don't thrill you immedateily

Mike Soroka! (though that is more about injury than busting)

2:43

baseball players are super good these days and there's so much money in the game that htey're rationally heavily invested in improving

PC1970

2:43

So, if you're The Tigers, how long before you seriously take offers on Skubal? They're 27-39, but, all of a sudden everyone is almost back (Torres & Carp just came back, Mize & JV & Skubal & Jansen within 1 week) in the next week. They've been bad, but, are only 5.5 games out & the bones of the division favorite are still there. Obviously would have to get red hot.

Ben Clemens

2:43

I think the timing on this works out great, actually

2:44

the right time to trade Skubal, if you're going to, is around the trade deadline. Leverage will be high. People want him for the playoffs, so waiting a month to trade him probably isn't going to lower his trade value much. You also get to see if you unexpectedly go on a heater and don't want to trade him

and of course, teams get more chances to see that he's healthy

I think this is a plan that almost has to happen. even if they're gonna trade him, I think they need to take it to the wire

ashortking

2:44

Ben, how does it feel as a fellow Cardinals fan to be playing with this much house money in June? And do you think there's a way for the Cardinals to address 3B from outside without sacrificing the greater vision long term? (Would love some ideas, I had Royce Lewis in mind)

Ben Clemens

2:45

I mean, I'm largely experiencing them through my family at this point, and yeah it's absolutely wonderful

fun to not have expectations

i mean, surely there is. I don't know what it is right this minute, though

I don't think it's a magic bullet situation, and I don't think they should want it to be

2:46

they should be on the lookout for good players and trying to just build a huge crop of good hitters, more so than trying to fill in roster weak spots

I'm pretty sure that's exactly how Bloom operates, so I think this is gonig to happen

2:47

like, of the 9 Cards who have batted most frequently this year, 5 have a wRC+ below 90

let's get some more boppers. you can pick where they play

(Masyn Winn is at 86 and he's obviously nowhere near getting replaced, just saying that this team could use many more good players, not just 1)

Carson

2:47

I agree! Big fan of Chaim and his transparency. Thanks!

Phillip Denny

2:47

Barrel rate is less predictive than ever, hard hit rate never really was predictive, x-stats need calibrating every season...what on earth are us pleb fans supposed to do with our savant red and blue bars, Ben??

Ben Clemens

2:48

oh baby - I can't tell you anything specific yet but if you like stats being red or blue based on whether they're good or bad, but would perhaps like some different stats to turn red or blue..... check out FanGraphs over the next month or so

2:49

you know what I do with the bars for now, though? I go 'oh I kind of get what kind of hitter this guy is' based on the relative distribution, but mostly ignore the numbers

you know, there's the slap hitter shape (low bat speed, high squred up, low whiff), the bopper (big whiff, big xSLG and exit velo, high bat speed), the pull goofs, etc.

2:50

and then if somebody doesn't fit one of those archetypes (Juan Soto is a contact hitter who is also 94th percentile in barrel rate), then you can be like 'oh right this guy's amazing'

djtofu

2:50

If you were Posey, how would you fix the Giants?

soupmonkey

2:50

If the Giants sell at the deadline, would you expect that they’re finally entertaining a rebuild? And if they are going to rebuild, would it be wise for them to trade Casey Schmitt at the deadline?

Ben Clemens

2:50

as I watch a lot of Giants games, this is something I've thought about a lot

2:51

I don't have a great answer for how to fix the Giants, as in I don't think I could tell you a silver bullet. But I'm not in love with how they're built, and I feel like they learned only half the lesson that baseball has been teaching teams in the last decade

We've seen the price of top-end players, both in free agency and trade, outstrip the rest of the league

2:52

that's because teams are realizing that juicing those top-end spots is really important, particularly for playoff success. You can't just build a team of average players and expect it to work, is essentially my view of what that boils down to

but the Giants didn't ever get that 'team of average players' to add their stars to. They took a team with a meh farm system and not much depth, added some stars, and were like 'and this is winning right?'

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