JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/1/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/1/24

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Ben Clemens

2:49

basically I like the implied optionality value you get from having a bunch of pretty good prospects

if they had a single ultra elite dude I'd be more interested in dealing from my surplus

but I think this is a strength in numbers situation

Guest

2:49

It's not likely to happen, but how fun would a Dodgers Rays mega deal be? Dodgers get Paredes, Caballero, and Palacio, and Rays get Lux, Outman, Vargas, and some combination of catching and pitching prospects (Rushing, Cartaya, Wrobeleski, Hurt, Frasso). Dodgers get long term support at 3B and SS, where they don't really have too many internal options, and the Rays get future upgrades at positions they don't really have prospects for and get a couple players who have had recent success that they can flip if they start to hit again.

Ben Clemens

2:50

This sounds very interesting, and I give you kudos for the trade construction. Everyone on both sides is both very Dodgers-y and very Rays-y

2:51

Um.... I mean for me it'd be very fun

I love MANY of these players

2:52

I think that the Dodgers probably don't need Palacios enough to make this deal happen, and my sense from talking to people across the industry is that even now, teams are not sold on Paredes

I'm gonna get less pushback when I send my list out this year b/c I'm finally not going to send it out with Paredes in the top 50, haha

although honestly maybe I still should

2:53

he just continues to mash

but basically, I think to make this trade the Dodgers have to value Paredes more highly than I think they do

Strange Angel

2:53

Random thought on that Rays-Dodgers trade, how much worse is Paredes in the larger Dodger stadium? It seems like his success is dependent on pulled XBHs that wouldn't necessarily work in a bigger stadium

Ben Clemens

2:53

100% yes

rational reason not to trade for him

Giant Gonzales

2:53

After a year and a half of doing this, has Jarren Duran established himself as a MLB starting OF, who possibly gets an All Star nod this year? Older prospect who revamped his swing during covid and struggled with going up/down to AAA afterwards, he's been a huge reason BOS is still hanging in the playoff picture this year.

Ben Clemens

2:54

oh yeah

completely established

ZiPS is skeptical about him.... and thinks he's a legit starting outfielder with upside

2:55

I could see him maybe getting an AS nod this year, he's been electric

DJ Tofu

2:55

What do you think is a fair trade for the Giants to get Coby Mayo?

Ben Clemens

2:55

mmmmmm

I dunno, this does not sound like a thing that would happen

the Giants are the exact kind of team that don't line up well with the O's

they're like a version of Baltimore turned down 10%

no giant roster holes but not enough difference makers

2:56

like the Giants' best trade chips are Logan Webb and Patrick Bailey

but they aren't trading those guys

2:57

and I don't think you can make a deal around Camilo Doval that makes sense

so I just don't see a fit here

Pat

2:57

Skubal for Jackson Holliday- Who says No?

Ben Clemens

2:57

Hot take: the O's say no, but they shouldn't

2:58

Holliday's line in the minors in June is SO weird

.444 OBP, .378 SLG

2:59

wtf is going on here, you know?

since coming back down he's hitting .252/.425/.421, and I just don't think those walk skills are obviously gonna play

in the majors

23% walk rate, i mean....

I dunno I'm still very optimistic

3:00

but I don't think he's a surefire all star, and Skubal is right now

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