JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/13/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/13/26

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Ben Clemens

2:12

increases in wRC+ are not linear. Teams like a 140 guy over a 120 guy by more than they like a 120 guy over a 100 guy, and with good reason

Sonny L

2:12

if the Red Sox need a stop gap veteran SS they can probably get Trevor Story for cheap. Oh wait

rickdugo3000

2:12

If Trevor story, coming off his weird but strong 2025 and then bad and injured 2026, was on like the angels he’d be a perfect “blah veteran option” to trade for

Ben Clemens

2:13

no, this is not who I mean

no one trades for a guy on the 60 day IL who's had one good season in the past 4 and goes 'okay this is my safe option'

I get it, Trevor Story is a veteran. It's very clearly not what I'm talking about

lmb2020

2:13

Will Wetherholt's extension get him on the top 50?

Ben Clemens

2:13

um, he's a slam dunk either way

Matthew VanWinkle

2:13

I'm firmly in the get a vet rather than promoting Arias camp. The Sox have promoted some young infielders (Campbell, Mayer) way too quickly recently and it's wrecked their development. Let Arias keep shredding rather than exposing him to a playoff chase in a challenging market before he's old enough to drink legally.

Ben Clemens

2:13

right that's why I wouldn't want to do it without some air cover

2:14

I think that your consideration is very reasonable and that reasonable people can disagree on whether it makes sense to promote him

but I think doing it without a safety net would be definitely a bad idea

jmantell

2:14

Do you think people think about contract status too much when thinking about trade value? In an uncapped league, it seems to me that talent and future value should be the predominant variable (as opposed to NBA and NFL where contract status has to be considered because of the opportunity cost). I feel like people are trying to be too smart and win the value, without considering that getting the better player is just good

Ben Clemens

2:14

yes

but like.... I think taht's kind of an ongoing argument on this site

2:15

every year I write the top 50 list and articles, and every year some of our commenters, including ones who I think are very sharp about baseball, are like 'I'd prefer a punch in the face to having Fernando Tatis Jr. on my team'

well like, maybe.... but maybe not

now Tatis is a bad example this year, of course, and he's WAY down the list because of it

but yes, there's clear value to star-level production in the present, and teams act like there is every time there's an opportunity to either trade for or sign a guy like that

so I think it would be silly to pretend that's not a consideration

rickdugo3000

2:16

So then IKF is a blah veteran option?

Ben Clemens

2:16

if they're sure IKF is going to be back soon taht's fine

doesn't sound like they're very sure of that, but I'm not as plugged into that as you no doubt are

BooneyO

2:16

What should Breslow do at the deadline? Gut tells me they should still trade Chapman and gray. Those two could fetch real value in a sellers’ market and their offense is too bad to legitimately be a contender this year anyway. Tough pill to swallow but they’d be foolish to actually aggressively add this year

Ben Clemens

2:16

I don't think I agree with this, but man, it's a tough one

2:17

I don't like the idea of selling when you're in the race like they are, particularly when you have the kind of top end talent that makes you scary in the playoffs. who wants to face the Boston rotation in October?

and also, not that you can count on healthy returns for Crochet and Anthony, but man, there's some very attractive contingent upside there

bosoxforlife

2:17

IKF and Monasterio, who looks like a hitter, already fill the role of mediocre, but playable utility infielders. Siegler is doing the job at 2nd and Arias might be the Bob Hazle that explodes. Mayer is clearly on the outs and I predict he isn't in a Red Sox uniform on Aug, 4.

Ben Clemens

2:18

I don't think Monasterio can handle short, personally. I know he's played there a tiny bit with the Sox this year but the numbers haven't been good and his teams have generally treated him like they think he's not quite up to par defensively there

2:20

I'm not really sure how to read the tea leaves on Mayer, again, people who are maximally dialed in here are going ot know more than me. But he sure seems like a change of scenery option to me, and again, he's hurt, so it's tough to treat him as a for sure upgrade down teh stretch. I think that makes him a better fit as a trade chip, yeah

warpath

2:20

Any gut predictions on who ends up buying vs. selling from the mess in the middle of the AL this year? So many teams at or just below 0.500...

Ben Clemens

2:20

I think the next two weeks are honestly going to be very important here

2:21

because if you go 1-7 or something, you should probably sel

it's VERY crowded to get that third WC spot

bosoxforlife

2:21

In the past ten days we have seen two pitchers taken out of perfect games, several other no-hit bids, the Yankees get 3 hits in 3 consecutive games then strike out 17 times in back to back games. Am I the only one who fears this imbalance?

Ben Clemens

2:22

yeah, I'm not liking it but I don't quite know what can be done about it. they keep trying to change things to make average go up and it just stays in the .240-.245 range

mlommler

2:22

What's the over/under on # of guys on the 50 who get moved before the deadline?

Ben Clemens

2:22

let's take a quick look

honestly, 0.5

b/c I don't have Skubal on there right now, I'd have to make it at least 1 over/under if he were there

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