JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/13/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/13/26

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Ben Clemens

2:23

I think that this year in particular is going to lean away from trades of guys with long team control

there's incredibly high uncertainty about the next CBA

so that makes both sides have wider error bars on their valuations, which encourages being conservative imo

BooneyO

2:24

Besides Bobby Witt Jr., is there a middle infielder with more trade value right now than Brice Turang? He’s not nearly the household name of an ELDC or Gunnar — or even McGonigle or Wetherholt — but he’s certainly in contention for that #2 spot if you ask me!

Ben Clemens

2:24

at the moment you have named all but one middle infielder I have ahead of Turang. And you also named one infielder I do not have above Turang

2:25

I can't spoil more than that b/c it's kinda fun to have some mystery but Turang rocks

I just kept sliding him up the list as I was like 'wait I'd definitely rather have him than (whoever I was lookign at)

scottsjunk1981

2:25

I'm pretty sure that FG uses different replacement levels for starters and relievers. Assuming I'm right about that, I worry that openers and bulk relievers are skewing the calculations. I mean, my understanding of why relievers have better rate stats is that they can throw more max effort and they can be used situationally. It's not about who throws the first pitch of a game. What do you think about replacing or supplementing the SP/RP split with something like pitchers would usually face fewer than 6 hitters, pitchers who usually go through the order about once, and pitchers who usually go through the order at least twice?

Ben Clemens

2:26

yeah, a consideration for sure, it's sitting in the 'things to do when there's a lockout this winter' project pool

baselining replacement level by role is a good idea and we'd like to do better

Siddharth Nair

2:26

Astros are in an interesting spot in that we’re in the hunt for a playoff spot but I wouldn’t mind us being a change of scenery candidate for Marcelo. I just don’t think we’re going to be making waves in October and I want us to reload the stockpiles to a degree

Ben Clemens

2:26

yeah, I think that's a reasonable take for the Astros in particular. Their coffers are empty from years of being aggressive at the deadline, and I mean, would you argue that it's been a good strategy by them? I would not

2:27

but this is probably one of their weaker shots at a ring in recent history, not a bad time to think towards the future

hyphenkee

2:27

Re: improving batting average, what are your favorite suggestions? I like the idea of making the foul lines wider (either in the outfield only or even from home plate)

Ben Clemens

2:27

yeah, bigger arc of fair territory is one of my favorites. I also like moving the mound back or deadening the ball and shrinking the zone

JCCfromDC

2:28

Just a suggestion for a possible research topic in the offseason (in case there's, you know, a time period where nothing is going on for a while): do umpires seem to be aware of when a team is out of ABS challenges? Is their zone better when a team has challenges, or is there little/no difference?

Ben Clemens

2:28

what in the world are you talking about

no, it's true, as I've mentioned a few times in teh past, we're trying to have lots of ideas for if there's suddenly not much baseball to write about

my guess is little/no but sure, we can mess around with it when we're deep in the December/January doldrums

aglossman

2:28

sorry to pile on to the Red Sox talk early in this chat - but if they are hanging around here or better without faceplanting after the break, they gotta be buyers. Anything less would be a real slap in the face to the fans and the players on the team who have clawed their way back into it. Go get a bat and a bullpen arm. Maybe try calling up Arias, too, but I’m not married to that.

Ben Clemens

2:29

The Sox are probably the most interesting team in baseball right now, so don't worry about it

I definitely do not think they should be selling if they hit the deadline in this position

I think it would be reasonable to do mostly minor upgrading, move some guys who you don't think fit your current roster, and hope to get some of your stars back down the stretch

ado64

2:30

Say you're a "repeatedly bad team, now on the WC fringe, but not a real WS threat," and thinking about trading for upgrades to make the WC. I imagine you care about making the playoffs more than a team who's exactly as good THIS season, but with a better recent history of playoffs. I'd be curious if you agree, and how big the gap is

Ben Clemens

2:30

so, I definitely think so

I don't feel confident in saying how big the gap is, and I think it's very contextual, like I can't give you a generic answer b/c each team's exact picture matters a lot

but yes. teams that are almost never in the playoffs derive more value from reaching the playoffs. I definitely think that

2:31

I also think that the state of your farm system and state of your ML roster matters, and generally speaking,t eh teams who have been in the playoffs more times recently have both a)more ML options already in the fold who might bounce back or get healthy or break out or whatnot and b)worse farms, because they've been buyers for years

Siddharth Nair

2:31

Lower the mound and have the pitchers pitch up at batters, follow me for more dumb ways to increase batting average

formerly matt w

2:31

Not a trade value thing, but the token All-Star representatives from the teams with the worst records at the break are... the leader in WAR for his league and the leader in active career WAR, who is having a great season. Can't happen that often!

Ben Clemens

2:31

haha what a time for the al star rule to work

formerly matt w

2:31

Cal Raleigh is messing with my head on the rater. Gotta figure there's an excellent chance he bounces back to at least a steady 3-win player, right?

Ben Clemens

2:32

buddy, he's messing wiht my head in the article

I think there's a VERY good chance he bounces back to steady state 3+ WAR

but catchers

what the heck do you do with catchers

Bacterun

2:32

For increasing the batting average, what do you think of limiting teams to 11 pitchers? or some other number below 13. Along with some increased regulations around options to prevent endless roster churn. I worry that doing this might increase batting average by increasing pitcher injuries leading to less talented pitchers occupying more innings, not how i would want batting average to improve but an idea I've seen bandied about.

Ben Clemens

2:33

yes, I like this one as well. I think I might do 12? But I think this is very unlikely to happen

because like you said, it could be a player safety issue

liljebbie10

2:33

How high will Konnor Griffin be in the Trade Value Series? Top 10?

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