JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/13/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/13/26

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Ben Clemens

2:47

absolutely. I basically look at this as a best of. like waht's the highest trade value that someone would have.

Like, if only one team wants to trade for you, eh, you'd probably get traded at a discount to fair value

but how big is the difference between five teams going for someone and 17?

probably not as much

2:48

so I think for me, the key is whetehr there are enough suitors to produce a reasonable bidding war that would prevent someone getting dealt below fair value

so like, Juan Soto? Not on the list. Clearly not going to be a bidding war for him

but Corbin Carroll/ Sure, he's making 20 mil a year, but lots of teams would love to pay Corbin Carroll 20 mil a year to play for them

Broken Bat

2:49

I observed the Cubs pick of DeLaCruz with the 1st baseman playing off instead of holding him on. It was a timing play. Aasaad threw to Busch first pickoff. Why don’t more teams implement this? The runner would seemingly be potentially stepping back to first base on occasion when pitch is delivered. Hope I explained this….

Ben Clemens

2:49

yeah, I understand this, and I think I agree with you

it's the daylight play, transposed, kinda

2:50

I think it's a good idea .I'm not sure why more teams have not tried it. Maybe just b/c it feels weird and they don't want to risk looking foolish?

WonderWall

2:50

re: Jordan Walker being most valuable to the Cards
That is why Duran is still on the Red Sox (I wanted to get in on the Red Sox trend and I'm not a fan of the team). The team moving him wants peak value and the team acquiring him is worried about the risk/or believes that the one season was peak value.

Ben Clemens

2:50

yeah, similar case for sure

basically the guys who spike big years are always going ot have slightly lower trade value than you'd expect, or at least, that's my view

2:51

I think there's a general bias towards risk aversion, one that makes decent sense, in running a team

and that this is a case where that informs trade value

sliderinthedirt

2:52

How does the “extend every young guy” strategy work out if you’re not so smart about it? Like the Roman Anthony contract is good, the Bello and Campbell contracts, not so much. Does this trio as a collective have positive trade value?

Ben Clemens

2:52

it works out okay

like, thoes three do for sure

that's why teams like this strategy

you don't need to hit THAT often to make these deals work, and also to have them be a win-win

2:53

but of course, the more teams do this, the more they extend this strategy, the closer you get to it not working anymore

it's like this. if 100% of your extensions work out for you, you're not doing enough extensions

trophy

1

but you can't just give EVERYONE an extension, you can't take this too far. Teams are pushing the limits of how far to take it and I don't know if we've seen the results yet

TeeSto11

2:53

On the guys with big spike years having lower trade value than peak- does this apply to the cases where some specific measurable change was enacted that teams may feel it’s more sustainable? I guess my example would be Emerson Hancock

Ben Clemens

2:55

applies less to them, but still does. Like, okay, Hancock is a good exmaple. strong improvement this year, some measurable change happened, it's not just random numbers. but true talent levels aren't stationary. I'm a lot less confident that this level (91 FIP-) is his true talent than I am that it's, say, Michael King's

Brian Reinhart

2:55

As a Nats fan, reading all the questions about "the league is imbalanced, too much pitching, limit number of pitchers" sure is a trip!

laughing

2

Ben Clemens

2:56

yeah maybe we should just let the Nats make pitching staffs for everyone

this is why they're one of my favorite teams to watch - they buck a lot of the common trends in baseball at the moment. They're scoring 5.32 runs a game! that's wild

theyr'e allowing 5.25

thejack20

2:56

Does Trout have an equivalent in history to have such a peak but no postseason and cultural relevance? I know early in his career he was the poster child for sabermetrics and brought WAR into mainstream baseball conscience, but otherwise he's been surpassed by Ohtani as the icon of the generation, and by Judge (imo) as the best hitter of the generation.

Ben Clemens

2:57

It's had for me to go back in history to know exactly how these guys were perceived an everything

also baseball is a lot less culturally dominant now than it was when, say, Cap Anson played

2:58

like, I only know about Cap Anson from playing out of the park. I can't really tell you how he was perceived. But probably he was famous because great baseball players were famous then

of somewhat modern players, Jeff Bagwell has 80 WAR and I think that would shock people

love

1

but mostly no, there aren't a lot of Trouts

warpath

2:58

On extensions: We've seen a lot of really, really good young SP debut this year or last year. Do you think we start to see some early extensions for some of these guys? Teams are always going to be more wary of a pitcher's arm exploding, but it feels like there may be room to exploit a market inefficiency here for an enterprising GM

Ben Clemens

2:59

I do think that, yes

especially because if I'm a pitcher, I don't hate taking some certainty

Andre Mouchard

2:59

Is Andy Pages a top 50 trade value candidate? Generally, are players who generate a lot of WS via defense still undervalued, trade-wise?

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