JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/13/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/13/26

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Ben Clemens

2:33

I'm giving a lot of thought to where to put Griffin but I don't think I'm spoiling anything to say he's on there and not at the bottom

2:34

My mindset is generally to prefer players who are already doing it

I'm pretty consistently lower than the consensus on top prospects who have not yet done it in the majors

2:35

but 'top prospects' is a big tent and Griffin is not your average #1 overall prospect

I just did a big update to our prospect valuation numbers, and 70 FV hitters have been worth a LOT on average in the 21st century

like, way more than 65s, which is more of your average 'top dude'

2:36

the extension's good too. and 250 PA of above average ML play from a 20 year old is very impressive

so like, I'm probably going to put him somewhere that makes the surplus value focused set go "ew c'mon he's THAT low?'

but that number is still going to be quite high

didace

2:36

Increase batting average: It's been said a lot (at least by me) - Quit calling as many checked swings as strikes. Maybe even have the bat head need to cross an invisible line to the pitching rubber. Pitchers throw so hard now it is impossible to stop your swing by the current way of calling it.

Ben Clemens

2:36

another good one!

they're actually testing this one, I should have mentioned it earlier probably

2:37

also this one is in keeping with past ways baseball has been called, which m akes this wonderful

bosoxforlife

2:37

Does the industries rather rapid move away from long-term ridiculous contracts to higher AAV and shorter deals affect your trade value analysis?

Ben Clemens

2:37

yeah 100%

2:38

for one thing, it makes guys who can contribute those top-end results a bit more valuable. Because they've become harder to acquire in free agency without paying a really premium amount

but largely, there just aren't as many low-for-long deals on there anymore, and those types of deals where a guy signed a low-for-long extension and then broke out were almost always at the top of the list

2:39

so I think that the general composition is changing. Also this is a big transition year in terms of who the best players have been, lot of young names at the top of leaderboards

Swings Low

2:39

How does the Cubs preseason extension for PCA affect his standing in the trade value rankings? Does the increased money in the early years offset the extra two years they bought?

Ben Clemens

2:39

makes him more valuable for me

2:40

hard for me to imagine not wanting to employ him in those years. find the early year savings elsewhere, the late year value is a meaningful bump for me

Loubrock Shakur

2:40

Not sure if he'll make the list, but I'm very curious about the trade value of a dude like Jordan Walker, who was trending towards being non-tendered, but now has half a season of all-star numbers and peripherals to back them up. Are folks fully in, or does one still have to bake in the terrible years into his trade value?

Ben Clemens

2:40

buddy so am I!

2:42

I have a lot of guys in a roughly similar area as Walker. Michael Busch, Ben Rice (probably the best of the bunch, to be clear), even Ivan Herrera. Soderstrom? Where it's a plus bat, not a lot of ancillary value, and there are various question marks and possible upsides to consider

Like, you definitely have to bake in the terrible past years. But also, you have to consider the former top prospect status too

One thing that I think is fair to say is that Walker probably has higher value to the Cardinals than to a team trading for him

2:43

because if you're trading for Walker, it has to look like a win when you do it

if you trade for him at his high value mark and then he regresses, that's just a backbreaker

and that kind of stuff matters, in my opinion

2:44

it's a really tough problem to square

but basically if Walker stays this good, he's very valuable. If he regresses back a little, he's still pretty valuable, but not really top 50 level

and how you weight those two odds is the whole ballgame

cosmichero

2:44

Am I an overly optimistic (/maybe pessimistic) Nats fan for thinking Wood is already basically impossible to extend? What kind of offer would it take to even bring him to the table?

Ben Clemens

2:44

yeah I kinda think he is at this point

2:45

Boras client, sky's the limit for his deal in free agency

bosoxforlife

2:45

I have commented several times on the checked swing variable. The cynical side of me thinks it is the umpires way of showing their still the boss now that the ABS has taken away that power. Off to visit my cardiologist so I can enjoy many, many more of these chats.

Ben Clemens

2:45

best of luck. and agree with you

Andre Mouchard

2:45

I know this is the deadest of horses, but the idea that the Bosox should trade Chapman and Gray -- and generally raise the white flag on the '26 season -- is a huge bummer. Will ticket prices come down to reflect the lack of front office effort? Will there be an ad campaign that says something along the lines of "Come watch the Red Sox sorta, kinda, maybe try to win, and be happy if they lose because it'll boost their odds for next year!'?" Nope to both. What's more, nobody will look down on Bosox management for what is, essentially, fraud. I don't care much about the Bosox, specifically, and I've rooted for teams (the Lakers, the Rams, the Dodgers) that probably went for it, stupidly, when they should have tanked. So I understand the left-brain argument here; tanking is smart business. But I think, collectively, sports fans have decided it's OK for the owners of their favorite teams to give up and, at the same time, get paid a tiny bit more in the process. Let me help: It's not.

cool

3

Ben Clemens

2:45

yeah generally concur. I'm not gonna add any more thoughts here, just wanted to post yours because I thought it was well said

cosmichero

2:46

It seems like trade value is just different to different teams right? Like the strasburg deal was a much bigger problem to the nats than say bogaerts will be to the padres

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