JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/14/25

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Ben Clemens

2:30

I don't exactly know how to explain it

2:31

it just doesn't feel sustainable to me. I might end up being wrong but I'm at least gonna be consistent

Ben

2:31

What is your hot take on the Misiorowski all-star controversy? Seems like the Phillies players shouldn't have a complaint since their guys either turned it down or pitched yesterday

Ben Clemens

2:31

my take is that it's absurd that Sanchez isn't an all star

but Mis probably could be as well, there are plenty of spots

Sanchez is wildly underrated by the general public though

2:32

you're gonna go 'wait he's how good?' when you lay his stats out next to other pitchers over the last, say 3 years

Opifijikl

2:32

Who would your trade targets be for the Red Sox? I was thinking a pitcher from the Royals for an outfielder, but that might be a bit basic.

Ben Clemens

2:32

yeah, something like this

remove outfielders add arms

MyBloodyBallantine

2:32

Are the Red Sox better off trading Duran or Abreu or continuing to rotate them, Rafaela, Anthony, Yoshida, and Refsynder though the OF and DH spots? I think unless you can nab a quality starter or elite bullpen arm in addition to a couple good prospects they are better off keeping everyone (at least until the offseason).

Ben Clemens

2:34

on the subject: I think if you're looking for a quality starter PLUS for those guys, you're gonna be looking for a while. I think that they should bite the bullet and trade someone, you don't get extra points for having extra unused players who are rough equivalents for each other, and if you're benching a guy to give Rob Refsnyder more at-bats, you probably wouldn't REALLY miss him if you traded him

no offense, Rob, I think you're a wonderful rotational player

2:35

Rafaela and Anthony are too good to consider moving, of course

or well, I say of course: I am getting higher and higher on Rafaela the more I see, but I suppose he could be on the block

2:36

the reason I wouldn't trade him is b/c he seems like a clear starter who complements Anthony well. The rest of the OF, less so

Mike Tyson: designated hitter

2:36

15 team roto dynasty. Guy wants to send me Merrill for de Vries and misiorowski. I am not sure I would send misiorowski alone. Am I crazy…..about this?

Ben Clemens

2:36

I think you're a little crazy but I suppose it depends on the categories and roster construction

2:37

I really like Merrill. And I think that his early-season slow start is just a chance to buy low

2:38

I like Mis, but I am at least a little concerned about his ability to throw strikes

like, yes, he strikes the world out. but even in his insanely hot start, he has a 3.82 FIP. He's making it work thanks to a .160 BABIP and all the strikeouts but something is gonna give there

2:39

I think the bet with Mis is that he keeps refining his command and eventually is average on that front, b/c his stuff + average command is elite

2:39

On the Fangraphs library page for WPA, it says that average is set to zero. But on the table later in the page, it says for regulars, 0 is below average and 1 is average.

Would we say something similar for WAR? When we say 2 is average, does that mean for all players or regular? If the former then what is above average for regulars?

Ben Clemens

2:39

So, the overall league is average. A regular is better than the average MLB player. that's why they're a regular

2:41

applied to WAR, the league average for hitters, counting all the hitters, is sometihng like 1.9 WAR per 600 PA

so I'd say if you're a starter producing 2 WAR/600, you're a little below average for a player good enough to start

but you're in a good cohort already, there. 'players good enough to start' are a lot better than the average MLB player

Guest

2:41

When does the trade value list come out? I'm excited

Ben Clemens

2:41

next Monday

2:42

there will be an exciting auxiliary piece coming out this Wednesday, though, that will benefit from your participation. stay tuned

Bosoxforlife

2:44

Do you think the Marlins would take Rafaela for Alcantara now?

Ben Clemens

2:44

I do. I think I anchored too high on Alcantara and too low on Rafaela when you asked me before

and I have been trying to rid myself of biases like that a little, like trying to care a little lessa bout what I thought in July 2024

2:45

going from first principles, as it were, and trying to figure out what I'd want for Alcantara if I started valuing him from scratch

and like, eh.... risky! on the other hand, Rafaela is such a good defender that his floor ish high. it also doesn't hurt that he's been raking since we last talked about it

Hazmat Corntail

2:46

I’m 52, which happens first: Jose Soriano figures it out and finds consistency as a mid-3 ERA with a manageable WHIP, or I become eligible to collect Social Security?

Ben Clemens

2:46

lol

probably he figures it out

I think it's gonna happen

2:47

On the Red Sox point...in a hypothetical Andrew Abbott for Jarren Duran situation, which team is adding on their side of the equation, and is either team so against this off-hand to render that moot?

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