JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/14/25

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Ben Clemens

2:48

I have Abbott a little ahead but I think these guys are fairly close, and I've been giving thought to both of them in the general region of 'these are good players who could conceivably be among the top 50 trade values in baseball but probably aren't'

2:49

I think that either team would be happy doing this trade structurally. the Red Sox are definitely cognizant of their outfield logjam and the Reds surely know they need hitting. I think the Reds have less of a need to make a move than the Sox (pitchers break, you can never have enough starters, etc) but that both teams should be hahppy with the general shape of the trade

Opifijikl

2:49

My last q was about the Red Sox rebalancing their roster re Pitchers/Outfielders. Would you think about trying to rebalance a team's pitching based on metrics, ie the SFG lowering their K% rank but raising their BB% rank by trading someone like Roupp who seems to walk a decent number of batters + a prospect for Nick Martinez who doesn't seem to walk as many?

Ben Clemens

2:49

I wouldn't really thikn of it that way, personally

that said, I do like the idea of finding pitchers who fit your style

2:50

the Brewers do this, right? play to their defense

the Giants can play to their park

George

2:50

I'm writing something about Mackenzie Gore's arm angle decline and I'm stuck on something: When he throws his fastball at an arm angle above 45 degrees, it generates 15,4 IVB vs 16.7 IVB below at similar velos and spin. Maybe I misunderstand IVB, but wouldn't a more vertical slot generally induce more vertical break even if he's a natural supinator?

Ben Clemens

2:50

gotta be something weird with his hand applying cut when it gets that verticle

vertical*

but yeah, that's not normal

Guest

2:50

Going to Norway next year (Oslo, Bergen, Alesund). Any recommendations? Hope you had a great trip

Ben Clemens

2:50

oh YES let's talk about Norway

2:51

Oslo was incredible. Like, top 5 city I've been to

the food was awesome, the neighborhoods were really fun, I thought 'dang why don't I live here?' more than once

2:52

strongly recommend doing one of the floating saunas and jumping in the fjord. the entire waterfront feels like something out of a futuristic paradise, and the Munch museum was really cool too

2:54

I went to the fjords area after that, and stayed at this really cool hotel, Juvet Landscape Hotel, that was definitely worth doing

absolutely beautiful location, very good food, the rooms were cool and had big glass windows to see the magnificent surroundings

had a blast and would do again in a heartbeat. it wasn't even as expensive as I expected

2:55

that's close-ish to Alesund, we went via train to Andalsnes and car (but the direct route was still closed to repair a road, so it wasn't all that fast)

I've heard that the far north is cool too, particularly if you're a northern lights person, but we couldn't squeeze it in

GraphsMan

2:55

back to the mookie point- I think it’s reasonable to at least give him some grace given the way his year started. Dude is already undersized and lost a ton of weight right as the season started, and it’s generally really hard to gain weight during the throes of a 162 game schedule. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s begun his decline phase either but I’d hope he can get some bat back next year with a normal offseason program

Ben Clemens

2:55

Oh totally

I think you just have to change the weightings of each possibility in your mental model

just a little, not a ton

2:56

like I wouldn't cut him, haha

I just would be a little less interested in trading a bunch for him. or, say, offering him a new big contract if he were a free agent

Didace

2:56

Norway - You're not really getting northern lights in the summer, midnight sun and all that.

Ben Clemens

2:56

right, if I went there I'd go in winter

Guest

2:56

What do you think of a potential Mackenzie Gore trade?

Ben Clemens

2:58

I think it makes a lot of sense for the Nats, tbh. he's very out of phase with the rest of what they're hoping to do

in that like, his value will probably never be higher than it is right now

2:59

whereas if you think the Nats are on a good path, it involves the long-term duo of Crews and Wood

Sam

3:00

Also, regarding the Sox (I just scrolled up to see most of the questions are about them). Why does Fangraphs have their playoff odds so low? Is this a reflection of the stats not showing they are a legitimate playoff contender, the AL being very top-heavy or something else?

Ben Clemens

3:01

good question. looking through it, it looks like it's a few things. 1)tough remaining strength of schedule, toughest in baseball per our methodology
2)we like the team a little less than most of the teams around them in the standings, which just comes from adding up our depth chart projections

3:02

I think 2) is probably the slightly more important one; we basically have C/1B/2B/SS as weaknesses and that's a lot of weaknesses

Bosoxforlife

3:02

Was Devers such a clubhouse and organizational problem that just getting rid of him cleared the air and allowed them to play better?

Ben Clemens

3:02

i doubt it, but, it's definitely a great narrative until the next losing streak

those stories are just so rarely true that I default to not believing them

3:05

The 10th round just had a Maximus Martin and a Max Martin. No question, just enjoyed it.

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