JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/26/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/26/21

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Ben Clemens

2:13

Whereas the Padres have 4 prospects 50 or higher, including some very shiny ones, but really nothing in that middle tier

Bobby

2:13

With Cruz, Hill, and Frazier already traded, do you see this trading deadline to be busier than usual? Seems like a lot of teams are going for it or trying to improve for the postseason and a lot of teams are willing to sell.

Ben Clemens

2:14

I don't actually

There might be a lot of moves, but I think many of them will be of the Rich Hill variety

Not too many teams are right on the cusp of shove/fold, as it were

Appa Yip Yip

2:15

Acquiring pitching seems particularly dicey this year given the sticky stuff crackdown, how should teams evaluate arms they're looking to trade for this year? Do you put the weight on the longer track record, or the relatively short span since the ban has been enforced?

Ben Clemens

2:15

Mostly longer track record, and keep an eye on disturbing underlying stuff changes

If a guy lost 3" of movement or something, be wary

But Corbin Burnes and Gerrit Cole are two of the bigger rpm losers, and they're both still excellent

And heck, their underlying numbers are still excellent

2:16

So it's not like you can't acquire a pitcher who is now spinning it less. Everyone is spinning it less, and good pitchers are still good

Matt Damon

2:16

MATT. DAMON.

Adam

2:16

If I set the qualitative over/under on the Dodgers' trade deadline acquisitions at "Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy," which side you taking?

Ben Clemens

2:17

Over, I think. I haven't heard any specific rumors, but the Dodgers have always done a good job (in my eyes) of understanding the leverage of adding pieces

And they're in a very high-leverage spot right now

Thomas

2:17

Do you think pitching-needy teams see Kyle Gibson as a playoff starter (#2 / #3)? Or will we see him priced more as a back-end innings eater?

Ben Clemens

2:17

Something like a #3/#4 imo

I think you only trade for him if he'd slot into your playoff rotation, the price won't be right otherwise

Adam

2:18

Should the Dodgers trade Ruiz, or just move Smith to 1B/3B?

Ben Clemens

2:18

Trade Ruiz imo

Mitch

2:19

What would you speculate the chances are that somebody in MLB is a different age than the age actually recorded in the record books? The incentive to lie about your age would definitely seem to be there for international guys and draft kids for signing bonus purposes

Ben Clemens

2:19

Somebody, like at least one player?

100%

Er, fine, 99.999999% or whatever number isn't 100%

Who Me

2:19

The Frazier return looked light to me. Am I wrong? Will I be similarly disappointed in the return for Starling?

Ben Clemens

2:20

I did indeed think the return was light, but I also don't think Adam Frazier is *that* good

Empty average is fine, but it's not a jaw-dropping offensive line overall, and it's not like he's an elite multi-position defender

Theo's Legacies

2:21

Verdugo for Bryant -- who says no?

Ben Clemens

2:21

Uh, the Red Sox

Like, instantly

2:22

They're not going to trade a major league contributor for a rental

Just works too much at cross purposes

Tom Emanski

2:22

With the current state of the Cubs system, it seems overly optimistic for them to be contenders again before 2024ish. In addition to trading expiring assets, should they consider taking on bad money if they can get prospects attached? They have very little money on the books moving forward (even JHey has only 2 more seasons after this one), so it seems like they should consider using their financial might to continue to bolster their farm system.

Ben Clemens

2:22

So, that's a good idea in theory

There are two problems with it

2:23

1: the Cubs just made a salary dump in the offseason

They don't act like they're interested in bulking up future payrolls, to say the least

2: With the exception of the Cubs (lol), it's not like there have been many teams willing to trade value in exchange for financial relief

2:24

Like, make me a hypothetical trade where someone is going to send a prospect of value along with a bad prospect in exchange for nothing

They don't really happen that much anymore, because teams, for all their whining, aren't really willing to give up prospect capital to fix their budgets

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