JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/26/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/26/21

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Ben Clemens

3:22

And I thought the mechanics made the game hum, it felt very balanced but not overwhelming

I hate when games feel balanced if you know the right strategies but impenetrable to amateurs

3:23

Let me recommend two: One is Vindication, an area control game that also plays like Everdell in that you build a team of effects

Also, Seasons, a deckbuilder/drafting hybrid

I've mainly played both as a 2-player game with my wife, but both work at higher levels too

Band-aid collector

3:23

Over/under on number of 50 FV prospects dealt during this deadline? Feels likely to be lower this year than many of the recent non-2020 seasons.

Ben Clemens

3:23

2.5

David Forst

3:24

What do I do with my crappy but apparently contending team? Please keep in mind that my idiot billionaire boss refuses to spend money until our broke city builds him a stadium with tax dollars

Ben Clemens

3:24

The Oakland stadium situation is a mess

I think the A's are out on Story at this point

3:25

Based on rumors, no real conviction

And I think that despite their best efforts to make the city hate them, the city will still embrace them if they make a run

Chip

3:25

How would age based free-agency work when some guys get to the big leagues at 19, and other do at 27?

Ben Clemens

3:25

Well.... that 19-year-old player would be under team control for a while (making first a higher minimum, then arbitration)

3:26

Like, that's how it would work!

It's an incentive to bring the 19-year-old up

Tal

3:26

Who do you believe could be surprisingly dealt at the deadline?

Ben Clemens

3:26

Ooh, love this question

Hmmm...

3:28

Trying to decide between heart and head here

I'll go with heart

Freddie Freeman!

Super unlikely

But if he and the Braves have a handshake deal to come back, that would be a fun and surprising one

Charlie Morton

3:28

What about me getting traded?

Ben Clemens

3:28

I don't think that would be surprising, but sure yeah

Appa Yip Yip

3:29

Kirk, Groshans, Woods-Richardson, and two or three guys from the 10-20 range for Jose Ramìrez. Oui ou non?

Ben Clemens

3:29

Swap Moreno for Kirk, and I think this works

It's a big pay, but Ramirez is a big get

3:30

He's not the cleanest fit on the Jays, but heh's also great

So, that seems good enough for me!

David Forst

3:30

Also, re gambling question earlier—if someone bet in consistent increments based on the gap in expected value between sports books and FG’s game odds, do they make money?

Ben Clemens

3:30

No, the vig is too high

3:31

I did some testing of various ways to look at HFA when calculating our game odds before last year

And so was looking into various versions of that question, both vs lines and vs different iterations I was trying

And eh

You're not gonna beat the vig

3:32

With some mechanical strategy

Maybe it gives you an edge that you can combine with other useful signals?

But not by itself

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