JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/27/26

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cosmichero

2:41

if the nats trade cj abrams (for prospects) it will presumably be very bad for the clubhouse and general team vibes considering that he's very good and one of the main leaders on the team. that would bum me out as a fan, but is it something the FO is/should seriously factor in?

Ben Clemens

2:41

I think it's worth considering, but I think that the return changes things

like, if they're moving him just to move him, that would not play well

if they get blown away by an offer and can make that clear to the team, I think that would not be the case

2:42

I'm pretty interested in seeing this trade market

cosmichero

2:42

What would constitute blown away? Is someone like Arias on the table?

Ben Clemens

2:43

I think that's in the correct ballpark for blown away, basically. and also in the correct ballpark for 'does this make rough sense'

2:45

like, Abrams ended up on my trade value top 50, arias did not. But I defeinitely considered Arias for the list, and I had Abrams off at various points, and I have very little confidence in which direction I'd order thoes guys

but that's like, here's full value for your player with something that maybe fits your timeline better. whereas you could imagine trading Abrams for like, two FV45s and a reclamation project

and that feeling really bad, really deflating to the team

2:46

I dunno, I'm not certain I'm right by any means

but that's how it feels to me

longsuffering

2:46

But why male models?

K’d Cavalli

2:46

not really a question, but I think people forget about the bidding wars that take place behind the scenes in trades. Trading for Skubal isn’t just trying to get equal value back, it’s offering a package that beats other teams’ offers too. Maybe the Sox think Early is worth more than Mead, but they needed to include him in order to beat another team’s reported package. Is that true am I misinformed Ben?

Ben Clemens

2:46

nah, that's real. definitely matters how much you NEED to win the trade vs. how much you'd just like to make it

I think I've equated this to the Brewers' offseason plans before. Seomtimes they just look for a free agent bargain

2:47

and it seems like while they have their types, they're really just looking to pay 80 cents on the dollar

so I think if you're looking for, say, 'a reliever', it's probably right to think about balancing the value, trying to make a deal that gives you the most bang for your buck, etc

if you need Mason Miller and you'll be super sad if you don't get him? Figure out a package that you think will iwn

win*

Broken Bat

2:48

You have to take one, goal is wild card. You are 1.5 games behind 2 other teams.. Peralta or Valdez?

Ben Clemens

2:48

oh man

that's a tough one

I think I'd take Peralta

2:49

I dunno, the version of Valdez that isn't a great groundball pitcher is just not doing it for me

2:50

Like they've both been really disappointing this year. BUt I can talk myself into Peralta just catching a string of bad luck, and I don't quite feel the same about Valdez

BuccoFan

2:50

Pirates desperately need relief help. With the caveat that he won't fix all their problems, how aggressive do you think the Bucs should be in pursuing Mason Miller? His contract aligns well with their Skenes window and we've seen you can flip Miller again to restock some of the prospect haul given up to acquire him.

Ben Clemens

2:52

oh.... I don't think I like this at all, tbh. I think that they are a team with enough holes at everyday positions that trading a bunch of prospect capital for a reliever is going to leave them wishing htey could fill holes elsewhere with those prospects

2:53

they are underperforming their pythag, and they really do need a better bullpen

but I feel like I'd be more intersted in trading for many okay relievers

Phil

2:53

If Breslow trades Arias for Abrams I will personally feed his entrails to the closest Cyclops. But I get your point.

Ben Clemens

2:53

haha, harsh! but fair, it's fun to dream on your own prospects and I really don't think htat Abrams should go somewhere where he has to play shortstop

Phillip Denny

2:53

I think the Mean return is an early indication that RH bats will be coveted this deadline. Which imo is a realistic response to the proliferation and effectiveness of LHP across the league.

Ben Clemens

2:54

yeah, I concur with this

Phil

2:54

Is it reasonable to see the Early trade as an indication of faith in Bennett? He has looked excellent lately.

Ben Clemens

2:54

if it is, I think that that misunderstands how pitching variance works

to me it's just an indication that the Sox have a lot of pitchers and that enough fo them are likely to pan out that the overall package is good enough even without Early

2:55

I like Bennett alright but I'm not a big fan of making trades due to 'faith'

springer

2:55

Would you be nervous about acquiring Abrams at the deadline with the plan of immediately moving him to a new position?

Ben Clemens

2:55

100%. and I don't think he's moving this deadline

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