JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/27/26

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Ben Clemens

2:55

but if he did, I think it'd be to a team that looks at him and goes 'eh he can play second' or something

2:56

I guess we'll see. The Nats are just good enough that I really think the most likely outcome is him staying

hyphenkee

2:56

In a given season (so not projecting forward), would you rather have 20 offensive WAR and 20 defensive WAR, 10 and 30, or vice versa? Or is it irrelevant? Does a certain balance portend more postseason success?

Ben Clemens

2:56

I've never found any signs that a certain balance is 'right' for the playoffs or anything

2:57

I think I'd probably prefer the offense, but I don't really have a strong take on why or by how much

I think it's basically the same, in other words

Mr. Redlegs

2:57

Now that Steer is hurt, the Reds don't really have too much to offer. Should they just ride it out? Maybe they get hot and it gets weird

Ben Clemens

2:57

yeah probably. unless they are sneakily soliciting bids for Elly and think they have a good reason to move him

I don't htink that's the base case at all though

2:58

Like you said, they don't have much to offer that they'd want to trade. Stephenson?

2:59

I think that means stay the course and see what's going on next year, with tiny equity to spike a playoff spot this year

YeonWoo Oh

2:59

Could Fangraphs also display the EV90 on the Statscast dashboard in the player page? I can see it on the Statscast dashboard in the leaderboard, but it’s not there on the Statscast dashboard in the player page. I can’t set it up in the custom report either.

Ben Clemens

3:00

yeah it needs some rejiggering somewhere in teh back end

to make it work easily

but it's on our list

Baseball Learner

3:00

The Orioles should sell right? Rentals only or should they be looking at unloading Adley?

Ben Clemens

3:00

the Orioles should probably sell, but if they do, like, what's going on here int he bigger sense?

3:01

things have really not panned out the way we all expected for the O's

I guess selling their rentals and then trying to reset next year makes most sense to me. but that's kind of a bummer

3:02

also Adley htiting the IL at the same time as Basallo is super annoying

they are having pretty bad luck this year, in addition to what I'd consider some bad strategic decisions in the past, and it's really just a bummer

3:03

if I'm them, I'm desperately trying to figure out how to extend the window being open, because I kind of can't believe that they hvaen't won a playoff game with this core

and if they don't, well, it's probably time to just completely strip things down to the bones and restart, which is miserable given that they just did that

cosmichero

3:03

Not to get super existential but the O's to me are a classic example of how the payroll disparity causes competitive balance issues even for well-run teams. If they're totally reliant on a perfectly timed window and aren't gonna spend heavily even during that window, you don't really have many mechanisms to take the step from good to great beyond just pray that even more prospects hit

Ben Clemens

3:04

so, I think I wrote about this a few years ago, and then later swore off writing the same article, but I guess we'll have to talk about it here anyway

I think that if you look at teams who have followed the O's style pathway in the past, they've spent more hwne they're competing

3:05

and the O's are basically doing that too. THey have a 165mm-ish payroll this year, middle of the table

and their CBT payroll is even higher

b/c of the shape of the deals

I think that their issues are around not striking when the iron was hot earlier in the window. and then like, man, things have broken poorly for them of late

3:07

huh I'll be right back, somehow Tyler O'Neill isn't showing up on the O's payroll page and I'm trying to figure out why

but basically, they spent

3:08

but kinda strangely?

and it didn't really pan out the wya they wanted

and at the same time, the prospects didn't hit like they hoped

HappyFunBall

3:08

Tyler O'Neil isn't really showing up for the O's, generally. So that tracks

Ben Clemens

3:08