JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/6/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/6/26

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

just an hour from me today

I'm behind the eight ball on some projects and need to get back to work

but let's talk about baseball first

puddle

2:01

Everyone needs to have a take on the Balogun red card apparently. Let's hear yours.

Ben Clemens

2:01

hey, I'm glad we're in the soccer big leagues now

FIFA seems to bend the rules to favor whoever they like, particularly if they're stars

fun to be in the conversation for that too

of course the whole thing seems horribly corrupt and ridiculous, but like, I knew that two weeks ago too

Samuel Buchwalter

2:01

Is there something to the RedSox almost all lefty rotation because of the increased number of left handed hitters + you don’t see a lot of decent left handed pitchers in the minors as they get promoted so fast?

Ben Clemens

2:01

My guess, honestly, probably not

2:02

but we'll never know through looking at data, because we just won't get enough data to know

so I guess I'd say that this is just something you either believe or don't. I don't really

mlommler

2:02

Otto Lopez is currently 4th on the combined WAR leaderboard. Huh?

Ben Clemens

2:03

it's wild. I'm writing something about Juan Soto right now and as I keep looking at leaderboards and seeing Lopez, every time I'm like 'wait really?'

I don't really have anything more productive to add. What an awesome year so far

oaktownblues

2:03

This isn't a fully formed thought, but I look at the times-through-the-order penalty for pitchers, and the pinch-hitting penalty for batters, and I wonder if batters are just worse in their first PA of the day?

Ben Clemens

2:03

definitely could be

I don't really know how you'd tell the difference

maxjusttyped

2:03

Is the trade value game coming back this year? I've been looking forward to it

Ben Clemens

2:04

it sure is. expect it in the second half of this week

waiting on some data to feed into the machine to get it back running again, but we had a meeting about it just today

philly

2:04

Did you consider looking at age groups separately for the prospect value project? An FV40 could be an older player who projects as a role player and also a very young player with a high ceiling. Those two player types should get to the same value, but in very different ways that would be notable.

Ben Clemens

2:04

no lol

the data is hilariously fragmented already

2:05

like, I feel really confident that the broad strokes of mine are right

if you want to get more specific you need to be doing modeling-based stuff

and really getting into the weeds

2:06

like, that's not what I was attempting to do. I'm trying to tell people what our grades tend to look like. I'm already extremely hamstrung by not having a lot of historical fangraphs graes

so the more I fragment it, the worse it would get

I think asking someone like Dan, or the prospect team, about this might produce a different answer

they're trying to predict the future

i'm measuring the past

fanoftheman

2:06

What the heck should the cardinals do at the deadline? Obviously, a lot could change in a few weeks. But if they’re still hanging out in the middle of the wild card seeds with a slight positive run differential, what should their approach be?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I think I'd just stand pat, honestly. It feels defeatist but it seems like trying to add is not really going to be a great choice either

like, y hou can see them adding some marginal bullpen pieces and then eh, the pitching's just bad anyway

I don't mind letting the guys who they have play and see what shakes out

you don't have to be playing 4d chess all the time

Phillip Denny

2:08

Let's normalize chanting "shame" when the manager makes a decision the crowd disagrees with, yeah?

oaktownblues

2:09

Thoughts on the decision to take out Eury Perez yesterday? I get he's coming off injury and they want to baby him some...but he had 6 batters max to go (since they could just pull him at any point if he lost the perfecto) and was at 92 pitches

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