JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/6/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/6/26

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Ben Clemens

2:09

oh man. I think I'd take Eury out too, because he in particular has dealt with a ton of injury problems

and also, I don't want the shame chants to get TOO popular, because you know they'd be mis/over-used

but in this case, it was incredible

PC1970

2:10

How much lower in trade value than Skubal is Casey Mize? Obviously, a small sample but he's actually outpitching him by a fair amount recently.

Ben Clemens

2:10

I mean, meaningfully

'by a fair amount recently' is doing a lot of work there

SPArn

2:11

Since 6/16, Dylan Crews is slashing .279/.347/.412, good for a 112 wRC+. K% 24, BB% 8. Sock and a shoe yesterday, career max EV around 113 last week. I think I'm starting to believe (again). You?

Ben Clemens

2:11

this is why earlier this year, when we were talking a lot here about the potential of trading Dylan Crews, I think our chat consensus was that they couldn't do it

2:12

and not entirely because of his current form, but because come on, he was a huge prospect once, he might bounce back, and if he does we'd be quick to believe

so yeah, I'm cautiously optimistic for sure. takes less to convince me when the tools are there

oaktownblues

2:12

Let's say you had a player with a guaranteed 1:1 K/BB ratio. What is the optimal BB and K rate under this constraint? I imagine it depends how good the player's results are on contact: If you can't hit at all, 50% is optimal, but if you're the greatest hitter ever, 0% is optimal. But what about someone with, say, league average results on contact?

Ben Clemens

2:13

i think with average results on contact you'd probably prefer 0% too, honestly. Like, mathematically you would in a linear weights sense, and I think that's true even if you account for leverage

but like.... no one can strike out never

basically for an average power on contact hitter, you'd want 0/0. but not striking out tends to make your production on contact go WAY down

2:14

gotta swing slow to avoid whiffing

Phillip Denny

2:14

No Wheeler for the ASG feels gross. But the two pitchers I'd point to as the replacements would be Skenes and Webb, both of whom are already their sole team representatives. Also Manfred could have picked Wheeler over his teammate Harper for the "Legend Pick," which feels like a miss.

Ben Clemens

2:15

agreed. I would like to have Wheeler in the game, and I also agree that Webb and Skenes would make sense but for the all star rule. but yeah, just add another spot? or use the legend pick? it's weird that he's not in the game

warpath

2:15

Hey Ben, the White Sox finally in the last couple of weeks have indicators like Pythagorean record and Baseruns record more in line with their actual record after some big wins. To paraphrase Laurence Fishburne, are we beginning to believe?

Ben Clemens

2:15

yeah why not

I feel like we've talked about how I think their odds are too low in our model a few times

2:16

I'm not quite sure I'm convinced. but like.... the evidence seems good

and the rest of the ALC is not good

so.... clearly if I'm being a rational actor, I have to put their odds of being real enough to make the playoffs at at least fairly high

Marc Rosenberg

2:16

Ben, I was also at SCG Vegas for the Team Sealed event! Did you enjoy the weekend? How did your team do?

Ben Clemens

2:17

it was very fun. our team did poorly, but i won a side event rcq so that was cool. and just generally a fun event, great weekend with my friends. I highly recommend playing games and doing activities with people you like. I thought my non-gaming weekend was every bit as fun as the gaming part

peanut-gallery

1

Philip Christy

2:17

If you knew you were going to get exactly this level of production from each of them for one season, would you rather have Bobby Witt Jr. or Yordan Alvarez?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I think I'd take Yordan because for me, it'd be cheaper to get someone to handle some of Witt's defense and make my team that way than someone to handle some of Yordan's offense

now, if Witt has more of a 150 wRC+ than his this year mark of 128, that changes a lot

2:18

and Yordan is MASHING

Witt has a higher margin for error, basically

but if we're stipulating these exact performances? yeah gimme the guy who's hitting .320/.429./.637

SPArn

2:18

Webb isn't even the Giants only rep! Really don't like getting worked up about all star snubs, and Wheeler will likely be invited (if you recall, Miz was like the 13th replacement invited last year). But also - come on, don't make Wheeler wait around to decide whether he's going on vacation or not!

Ben Clemens

2:19

ah yeah, I blanked on Arraez

then cut Webb, who like you said, will probably get in anyway

and give it to Wheeler

fangraphsreaderbutwoke

2:19

Skenes has a era abov 5 his last nine starts right? Wheeler should be in over him.

Ben Clemens

2:19

one player per team etc. plus paul skenes shoudl be in the all star game

should they just have more pitchers? looking at this list, it is kinda wild figuring out who to cut

Cheeknbut

2:20

Rays now favored to win the division. How big of a failure for NYY would that be ? Do divisions really not matter anymore or should Boone be a hot seat candidate ?

Ben Clemens

2:21

um, I definitely don't think Boone should be a hot seat candidate, that sounds like some real ridiculous New York nonsense to me (I lived in NY for 10 years, I feel like I get to say that)

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