JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/10/26

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.

2:01

I'm really excited to basically just watch a bunch of baseball with no ulterior motive for a month; the last month has been filled with trades, valuation stuff, the ASB, home run derby, and so on. but now it's just a bunch of games and no transactions. Can't wait! Let's chat

Okra

2:01

Extra rest is good for pitchers, right? Shouldn't the Mariners just go to a 6 man rotation and call up Kade Anderson? Gotta find out how good he is and get him some experience before a potential playoff run.

Ben Clemens

2:01

I'd be tempted. Or, well, I'd probably just do it. I'm very high on Anderson

2:02

the tradeoff is that you're getting your good guys slightly less frequently. But eh, everyone in the M's rotation is good

I think that the teams that should most avoid 6-man rotations are the ones with spiky distribution of pitcher talent, which is not them

shandykoufax

2:02

Following the Kawhi Leonard saga at all? Baseball cap circumvention could never be this good, we’d probably just get Steve cohen backdating stock options inserted into player deals

Ben Clemens

2:02

it's spectacular

I really want to see the fallout

Nickname (required)

2:03

Do the Cardinals go for it next year, or will they continue the reset, runway, finding out who they are? How far off do you think they are from challenging Milwaukee for the NLC?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I think that they'll basically continue building, but with more of an eye on the present

When we've talked about their strategic position this year, I think it's generally been in the context of 'there isn't a whole team here, so let's use 2026 to figure out which parts need to be addressed, while we keep accumulating'

2:04

if I were them, I'd be focused on pitching this winter, whether that's via trade or free agency. I'm thinking kind of the same blueprint as a lot of teams that have followed a similar youth movement arc to the Cards; pitching is an easier place to start spending money b/c your pitchers are less likely to crowd out your ability to keep figuring out which minor leaguers you like

2:05

an ace doesn't 'block' anyone else basically

so I expect them to do that. but the lockout makes it all very tricky

mlommler

2:05

If you were a POBO, how would the other POBOs react when you called/texted about potential trades? Would it be, "Ah, it's Ben, this should be interesting and productive" or would it be, "Oh, this effing guy again".

Ben Clemens

2:05

probably it would depend on their own style. I'm more of a 'first price best price' guy

not that every offer I make is my best

2:06

but in various bargaining situations, I hate the whole 'start far away and gradually add'

so if a GM is one of those types, they're going to be getting a lot of hangups

and if they're the type that gets an offer, regardless of fairness, and starts their own counter WAY away

then they'd hate me

war2d2

2:07

Ben! I was a little surprised by the costs associated with the moves the Cubs made. They got Gausman essentially for free, but had to give up their top guy to get Holmes (and Taylor). I’m not complaining about the moves themselves, but I wouldn’t have been surprised if the returns were reversed. Gausman isn’t an ace or anything, but I’d prefer him to Holmes. What were your thoughts? Do you think it was a case of dwindling resources driving the price up for Holmes, or was Toronto not pushing hard enough for more?

Ben Clemens

2:07

yeah I was surprised a little bit. I wrote about this some in my winners/losers deadline piece

it kind of feels like prices went up as the deadline loomed, and that the Jays just settled too early

2:08

I do think that Holmes is more highly regarded than we in the public suspect, but yeah, prices went up later on in the process

Mr. Redlegs

2:08

Maybe a dumb question or a misunderstanding on my part but I've never understood the batting average against certain pitch types for a pitcher. Feels weird to attribute a specific result to 1 pitch when it might have been the many pitches in the sequence that actually led to the result.

Ben Clemens

2:08

you're understanding it correctly. it's a terrible statistic

the biggest issue with it is that any pitch that gets predominantly thrown in counts that can produce a strikeout looks silly

like, a 1-1 pitch can't produce a strikeout even if it produces a strike

so BAA doesn't handle that well at all

it's just a very bad statistic

2:09

completely confounded by count leverage and the fact that at-bats aren't one pitch long

marz

2:09

The ads the owners are running right now featuring supposed fans whose biggest concern with the game is that there isn't a salary cap are straight-up embarrassing. That is all.

crew87

2:09

I'm firmly in the camp of "no salary cap," but SOMETHING should be done about the imbalance of the Dodgers, right? I do believe owners should spend more money, but dont' necessarily believe they could all spend what the Dodgers do, mostly because of LA's sweetheart revenue sharing deal and their deferred contract setups. Would ending contract deferrments bring some of that spending back to the pack to a reasonable degree?

Ben Clemens

2:09

we'll do just a little bit of lockout/bargaining talk

but not too much!

2:10

those ads are embarrassing, but eh, negotiating in public is just embarrassing in general. let's not act like the union hasn't said some ridiculous stuff at various points too

I'm just treating that as a non-event

as to the second question, deferments would do NOTHING. that's a fan issue, not team

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