JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/10/26

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Ben Clemens

2:10

teams know that

2:11

the money gets put in escrow. it's just not a big deal. the dodgers are paying Ohtani 46 mil a year between the money they send him directly and the money that they're required to set aside. it's a REALLY marignal change in finances, and these teams are surely not cashflow strapped, or if they were, they'd just do some debt management around it

now, revenue sharing, THAT is the big deal

for me, the number one issue that must be fixed in this CBA is a far more evenly split of TV revenues

far more even*

2:12

that is absolutely the biggest issue driving a divergence in spending, even among teams that truly do want to compete

look, the Pirates under Bob Nutting are probably going to be an embarrassment to the idea of trying to win regardless of what CBA we sign

but let's make it easier for the Brewers by giving everyone a more even piece of the TV pie

Andre Mouchard

2:12

I'm NOT panicking. NOT NOT NOT... But, damn, the Dodgers suck right now. They can't hit, run the bases, field... It's ugly. Have many WS winners had losing streaks/stretches like the Dogs of the past two weeks or so? Again, NOT PANICKING... Also, while I do love the Skubal deal, I've been thinking all year that they need a bat. That's become more clear as Teo has slipped, Mookie has aged, Tucker has flopped and Will Smith has been hurt. That's half a lineup that's either not good or unwell. Thoughts?

Ben Clemens

2:13

thoughts: boy, the hedonic treadmill sure is something

if DODGER fans think their team is bad, imagine how fans of other teams feel

baseball has a long season

teams have bad stretches

chill out, it'll be fine

bosoxforlife

2:13

The Fangraphs fraternity is sharply divided on the Rutschman trade. Where do you come down on this?

Ben Clemens

2:13

I think that the Sox overpaid. And I probably would have overpaid in their place too

2:14

ironically, I think that they're doing a good job of avoiding what I'll call the Oriole Trap

that is, 'hey, I like my core, let's just keep in asset accumulation mode because we have an 8 year window and I don't want to close those last years'

the future is unknown and unknowable. The Sox have a great shot at winning the World Series. Chuck some pitchers out the door, get an All Star for this year and next, try to win the 2026 world series

2:15

you can't have EVERY trade be like this

but a healthy farm system isn't only for developing your own players, it's for shifting talent and wins to the times when you want them

and what kind of GM wouldn't want to add talent to the 2026 red sox? This feels like a team that could win a ring

SPArn

2:16

The Dodgers will be fine... but MAN would them losing in the wild card be funny after all the hand wringing

Ben Clemens

2:16

i mean, that would be absolutely amazing

cosmichero

2:16

being an owner shill is embarrassing in general but it feels pretty out of touch to act like spending imbalance *isn't* the top concern for many fans. and part of that is because a lot of low hanging fruit has already been fixed in the last decade

Ben Clemens

2:16

oh yeah. spending imbalance is

it's the turning it into 'we must have a salary cap like the owners decree'

clearly something needs to be done about the revenue streams

there's just no question

Ice Cream Helmet

2:17

I'm finding it frustrating that baseball media folks I respect and baseball fans I know seem to be arguing past each other on the lockout/salary cap debate. To me, it seems to come down to:

Media folks arguing that "small market" teams are gaming the system for profit and not spending what they could. Some come off a little smug when telling fans "your owner is the problem, they should spend more or sell the team".
Fans of said teams - while possibly even agreeing with the above - still coming out with the opinion that a cap would be the quickest/best/most likely way for their team's odds of winning a WS to improve. Which very well may be true! If you don't have any reason to believe that Castellini will sell the Reds to a much richer rich guy, then the idea of a cap becomes understandably appealing to someone whose fandom is "locked in."

I can see both points of view. I'm more sympathetic to the fan perspective above, because, outside of a cap, I don't think they're being given better way to parity.

Ben Clemens

2:18

well, even the player proposal hugely overhauls revenue sharing of TV money, changes the way that a lot of revenue sharing works to incentivize winning, etc.

obviously what they want to do to the top bands of the CBT and stuff is silly

but I do think there's some happy middle place here where we end up with a soft cap/soft floor shape

which is REALLY what people want, I think

2:19

plus way more redistribution of revenue

opifijikl

2:19

What's your favorite traditional statistic? Do you pay attention to counting stats/totals much?

Ben Clemens

2:20

like this question quite a lot. I care about strike%, but largely because it's a good proxy for stuff that I'd look at more granularly later

do OBP and slug count? I think they're both good stats