JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/10/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/10/26

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Ben Clemens

2:33

probably a little, but also baseball does not do a good enough job of this imo. some of it is that Monday, Thursday, and Friday are days where I really want day games

2:34

but Wednesday is the day that most reliably has them b/c of getaway days

Talfred

2:34

The Mariners' rotation is excellent, but they've truly benefitted from pitchers not missing starts with injuries. This is the third year in a row where they've concentrated their starts in a small number of pitchers. It may be good health practices, but I have to think there's a reversion to the mean coming. What do you think?

Ben Clemens

2:34

maybe a little, but on the other hand, they were maybe the team best set up to handle pitching injuries

and instead they've had hitting injuries

that's kind of a bummer, on a relative basis

illardfillmore

2:34

On the DEF question, is the DH adjustment = ~ -15? Everyone has a DH, and so that's why its the average? Does that represent runs?

Ben Clemens

2:34

yes to both

it's -17.5

2:35

and the whole season's not over, etc.

runs

K’d Cavalli

2:35

With the lack of league-wide catcher production, combined with high year-to-year variance and underwhelming prospect depth, do you think more teams are starting to accept a bit of a hole at the 2? With the state of the position right now, I have a hard time imagining teams are going to pay too much for a 2 war guy vs two 0.8 war guys behind the dish (BOS excluded)

Ben Clemens

2:35

yeah. I think in general, teams are more willing to try to develop homegrown stars at catcher for value, and if that doesn't work, just punt it with some good-ish defenders who don't cost much

cosmichero

2:35

I think a not insignificant part of the Dylan Crews angst is that his ability to play above average CF was like half his value and he's blocked there by Jacob Young. Idk if that'll change, but it's something I've thought about

Ben Clemens

2:36

yeah, although I'd expect him to be grading out better defensively if he was going to live up to some of the rosiest reviews of his defense

2:37

I just think the big worry here is that this guy was a top prospect because he hit the snot out of the ball with great bat speed/exit velo type numbers in college

and now he's hitting the snot out of the ball right into the dirt in front of hte plate

drplantwrench

2:37

how much do you think the angels will regret not trading Zach Neto? i find myself wishing he was traded, even more common trade target reid detmers

Ben Clemens

2:37

I do

2:38

maybe there wasn't enough market, maybe they'll deal him in the offseason

but it just feels weird given the way they're operating in generall

Grandpaboy

2:38

Quick and dirty: The odds that there’s a 2027 World Series are _____?

Ben Clemens

2:38

98%

crew87

2:38

a non baseball fan asked me what I thought the odds were of a lockout next season. I said "75% the season is at least delayed, 80% that there's at least SOME season though." Would you go higher or lower on those?

Ben Clemens

2:38

yeah I'm way higher on there being some amount of season

cosmichero

2:38

i'll admit i am pro-cap/floor for the sake of clear bias, but I just don't see how targeting revenue is enough. the fact is some owners won't spend unless you force them to, and some owners will spend beyond what is economically justifiable because they can. To me it stretches credibility that competitive balance should be reliant on magically finding 30 perfectly balanced owners, even if the revenue is itself matched

Ben Clemens

2:38

okay, last one

'you can't trust owners to spend, so let's lower the player revenue share massively and cut off the draft'

2:39

and revenue sharing being based on competitiveness and spending is a forcing function on spending

i don't know what the right system is

I'm fairly certain it's not either the union's proposal or the league's

2:40

but the league's proposal is just brazenly full of lies about everything, whereas the union's is unrealistic but in a way that isn't so based on basically trying to hide the ball

that's where I come down

I don't know how this will all get fixed

but if you're saying 'we share tv money evenly and also you don't get as much revenue sharing unless you spend and make the playoffs' isn't enough to get an owner to spend

well then uh, yeah, this might not be solvable

and what would a cap do to fix that? they'd just come in under or massively slack off on all other spending

2:41

like, oh, you think having a pitching coach and a nice clubhouse would be good?

well if an owner wants to spend 100 million dollars but he's floored at 140 payroll

he's just cutting 40 million somehwere else

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