JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/14/23

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/14/23

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Ben Clemens

2:19

Not really my area, but he seems good to me

Guest

2:20

The Red Sox look like they can compete for a wild card spot. No team is close to matching what the Sox have been able to add for the drive. Sale was terrific, Story went 3 1/2 for 4 yesterday,, one hit was a pop fly lost in the sun, Whitlock is back where he belongs, as a long man in the pen, and Houck is returning to the rotation.

Ben Clemens

2:20

Sure, no team has added what they've added, but they started out worse, you know?

I sitll don't think they're a better team than the Blue Jays, for example

and they need to make up 3 games on them

Blake

2:21

This Wander thing looks really not good...

Ben Clemens

2:21

Yeah, I'm gonna just leave it at that

Dave

2:21

Have you ever thought about designing your own boardgame?

Ben Clemens

2:21

Eh.... like, a little, but I like playing them more than designing them

My wife got me a design kit for my birthday last year and honestly, I just don't quite get around to starting it ever

Eh?

2:22

The Blue Jays have the 2nd best team ERA in the majors and have one of the best team defences. If the hitting hadn't completely collapsed this season, they would be so dangerous. Instead, they are incredibly frustrating to watch.

Ben Clemens

2:22

Yeah, of all the parts of the team that could have gone wrong, I did not expect this one. Kirk is heating up, but Varsho looks disastrous and Vlad is not picking up the slack

Nate

2:22

How much longer does Bobby Witt have to keep performing the way he has been to cement a top-25 player in the league status? Defense vastly improved from last year, K% down, getting to his power in games more frequently, his production doesn't appear to be shaped in a wildly unsustainable way. Probably could still stand to walk more but I think the breakout seems real

angry

1

Ben Clemens

2:23

Yep, I'm gonna regret not believing in him by next year it looks like. I dunno, I will say that if he keeps it up the rest of the year I'm gonna more fully re-evaluate

2:24

I think a lot of it comes down to the defensive improvement

And like, it seems real? But I'm not great at evaluating defense, particularly when it went from so bad to so good

Guest

2:24

You, as a Cardinal fan, must be suffering through what has happened to Adam Wainwright. What should the Cardinals do? It is unmerciful to actually send him out there again.

Ben Clemens

2:24

I think that he should get to do what he wants to do

2:25

It'd be one thing if the games were really important to a playoff chase, but all that's really at stake now is the longest streak of one team finishing ahead of another in the division in MLB history (cards over pirates)

So if he wants to keep going out there and getting tattooed, well, he's Adam Wainwright and he's earned it

something tells me he's too competitive to keep letting this happen, though

one way or another

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:26

Jackson Holliday looks every bit the super prospect he was billed to be....but is it actually possible his brother Ethan is better??

Ben Clemens

2:26

Not really my area of expertise, but I'm gonna say probably not

Anon21

2:26

Braves are struggling to find anyone who can competently fill slots 3-5 in their rotation. Do you think Morton starts games for them in the playoffs out of sheer inertia, or is he nearing the end of his leash?

Ben Clemens

2:26

I think he probably will unless a few of the other guys have lights out Septembers

love

1

2:28

But yeah, that's the only weak point of this team

Blake

2:28

Chas McCormick has a 145 wRC+, but an 81 DRC+. I don't think I've seen a gap that big before. Is this all BABIP luck? Does this portend a big fall in production?

Ben Clemens

2:29

I think that there are a few components. It doesn't really seem like he's gonna keep running such a huge HR/FB% without true top-end power

tongue

1

that's just a wild number for someone with below average raw

Like, maybe you can do that if you're Mookie Betts, but that's not McCormick's game. So I think there's both BABIP and ISO regression baked in. But it's still a huge gap, I'm surprised by that

Bellinger

2:30

I'm told I'm more sustainable than my xWOBA looks because I pull a lot of balls. Why does that matter?

Ben Clemens

2:30

so, xwOBA completely ignores the spray; it just groups by exit velo and angle

but that's kinda weird for a few reasons: the most obvious is that the walls are closer down the corners

2:31

also, though, batted balls outperform their xwOBA when pulled and underperform it going opposite. I think it has to do with the spin imparted, on average, when you're out in front to pull the ball

there are a lot of those crushed slices that seem to flee the right fielder

hudie

2:31

Thoughts on Soto?

Ben Clemens

2:31

I think he's great

2:32

Not sure if that's exactly what you're looking for

little rough patch of late, though, Davy Andrews is writing about his recent plate discipline later this week

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