JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/14/23

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Izzy

2:32

How long does Riley Greene stay in CF?

Ben Clemens

2:33

For me, I'd keep him as a CF until someone pushes him out. Like, he looks reasonable out there

2:35

But I think it's a one or two year kinda deal, I think his instincts are not gonna carry him if he slows down just a bit, and Parker Meadows is theoretically gonna be ready soon

VitalGonzoGore

2:35

Are the Cubs winning the Central?

Ben Clemens

2:35

I believe in the Brewers. Having Burnes pitching like an ace again is a huge deal

Matt Damon

2:35

MATT. DAMON.

hudie

2:35

Is Arenado on a HOF trajectory?

Ben Clemens

2:35

Yeah 100%

2:36

I actually don't think this is controversial

2:37

His JAWS is right there already, and so are his counting statistics. Those counting statistics also ignore all the gold gloves

It'd be one thing if he fell apart after leaving Colorado, but he's been hitting really well in St. Louis, so that argument is gone

Didace

2:37

Candelario is by far the best trade deadline pickup, yes?

Ben Clemens

2:38

What about Cole Ragans?

2:39

Scherzer's been alright too. But yeah, Candelario has been the best hitter traded by a mile, and none of the pitchers have really popped

Nate

2:39

Does the contact quality of the pitching staff impact the defensive WAR of the fielders? For example, if Wainwright is getting shellacked all the time, does that negatively impact Arenado?

Ben Clemens

2:39

That's a really complex question, and I have never found a satisfactory mathematical answer, but my feel is that yes, but not in a predictable way

2:40

it shouldn't, in theory, but I think that the amount of pressure put on by having everything blistered is a real effect

C-Low

2:40

Do analysts overvalue run differential? I look at the Orioles who win a lot of close games, but games where the starter gets knocked around they turn to cannon fodder out of the bullpen that make final scores look like blowouts. Seattle lost season series 4-2 but outscored Orioles 31-17 because of two blowouts.

Ben Clemens

2:40

Eh.... like, maybe they do? But it's still more predictive than wins and losses

Those blowouts tend to come out in the wash, too

2:42

Teams like the O's with a great top of the bullpen and some questionable arms at the bottom are perhaps most susceptible to being "underrated" this way

but hey, lots of teams have bad pitchers, and they all use them when they're getting beat

2:43

The O's hung a 10 spot on the Mets this month, and the four runs they put up on Reed Garrett count in the scorebook

Deathclaw

2:43

Are you avoiding talking about Franco because we don't have enough info yet?

Ben Clemens

2:43

Correct

Brooty

2:43

The Cubs play the white sox, royals, tigers, and pirates over the next 2 weeks. Brewers play dodgers, rangers, twins, padres. Then they play each other. Huge stretch for the Cubs to make up ground.

Ben Clemens

2:43

Yeah, it's gonna be very important to finish that stretch having made up meaningful ground

if they're still 3.5 out in two weeks, yikes

Nate

2:43

How do you feel about my Reds chances of getting in the playoffs this year?

Ben Clemens

2:43

Bad, sadly

2:44

I have really been enjoying the Reds, but with Alexis Diaz being more reasonable than in the first half, the pitching staff is not looking good

2:45

they really needed to get some pitching reinforcements rather than just saying that Greene and Lodolo would be back at some indeterminate point in the future

LIke, the five teams who are allowing the most runs per game this year are: A's, Rockies, Royals, Nats, Reds

that's four teams who are purposefully awful, and a playoff contender

Noodles Hahn

2:45

Ben, my fork is out and ready. Is it officially time to stick it in the Padres? I saw 21% playoff odds, but that just seems way too high. If playoff odds factored in "Got that dawg in them", the Padres would have to be out.

Ben Clemens

2:46

Yeah, their DITAR (dawg in them above replacement) is shockingly low

I think you should save that fork for your noodles, personally

But I'm ready to give up

neuronic

2:46

I wonder when teams will start to deprioritize developing catcher framing in anticipation of ABS. has that already begun, or will it mostly just come after MLB gives a set date for that sort of change

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