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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/14/23

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Ben Clemens

2:46

I'm not convinced it will be as big of a shift as people talk about if they go to the challenge system

2:47

like, it'll matter less, but you still need to receive pitches reasonably

mike

2:47

Speaking of CC, and Buxton, those two deals could really hamstring the Twins if those guys don't play better in the coming years....and I liked both deals.

Ben Clemens

2:47

I actually don't think that either is a complete disaster, for different reasons

2:49

The Correa deal is just not that long, and while they are'nt getting superstar production out of him, a)they did last year and b)they're still getting a solid player in a spot where they've had trouble finding consistency

The Buxton deal, yeah, it's looking bad

but at least the structure was heavily incentive-laden

I think if he is just broken, that one will hurt more than the Correa one, to be honest

2:50

Like, the real disaster is when you have someone who's a)really bad and b)blocks a spot

Correa isn't really doing that, on a min deal everyone would be happy to play him

not the case with this version of Buxton

Guest

2:50

With the success teams like the Astros and Orioles have been having after years of "tanking" do you think "tanking" will become a legitimate strategy for teams especially smaller market ones. And will fanbases be willing to endure years of "tanking" to have a competitive window

Ben Clemens

2:50

Ooh, a question that feels like it's from the past

I think that for a while, everyone thought this was the way of the future

2:51

But a lot of these tank and rebuild jobs haven't worked out that well, and then you look at the Brewers and teams of that ilk, and they've done really well without having to completely bottom out

Chris

2:51

What does the future look like for D. Canzone? His minor league numbers look OK, but how does he project -- starter...fourth OF...fringe MLB player?

Ben Clemens

2:51

4th OF for me

Appa Yip Yip

2:51

What do you make of Davis Schneider? Bench guy, or legit shot to be an every day player?

Ben Clemens

2:52

Legit shot? sure

it'd be an underdog story, but yeah I could see it

like he's obviously nowhere near this good, but his minor league numbers aren't smoke and mirrors

2:53

he really does get on base a lot, that might play if he doesn't get the bat knocked out of his hands

(this is a real worry! He does not have average major league pop, actual results notwithstanding)

bosoxforlife

2:53

I see on MLB that Acuna, Albies, Riley and Olson have each played in every game this season. That is what luck really is, and also helps tell why they are so darn good.

Ben Clemens

2:53

It's partially luck, sure, but the Braves also seem to pride themselves on that kind of work ethic and both select players for it and foster an environment that promotes it

Like, before this batch, Swanson was doing the same thing

Freeman too

v2micca

2:54

I am still really bearish on a 2023 return for Kyle Wright. I know he has begun rehab work, but I just don't see him coming back this season. Are you more optimistic, or about the same?

Ben Clemens

2:54

Yeah I'm with you

Seamus

2:54

If Casas for Vlad Jr. was on the table, who says no?

Ben Clemens

2:54

Oh, the Jays I think

c'mon, you have to bet on the upside

Kwanbelievable

2:54

I think K/9 (or really any per 9 inning stat) is flawed and should be replaced by K/PA*100. My reasoning is that normalizing a stat on a per inning basis allows for more noise from batted ball luck and using PAs eliminates that. Talk me off the ledge, why is per 9 the industry standard?

Ben Clemens

2:54

Uh, yeah, I'm totally with you

it's not really industry standard; I think it's a fantasy baseball relic

2:55

my custom FG pages have BB% and K% instead

bosoxforlife

2:55

There was some, actually quite a bit of, doubt that Michael Harris would continue to hit at the level of his rookie season. Have you been convinced that he is not a flash in the batters box?

Ben Clemens

2:55

I am, at the very least, convinced that he's a plus major league hitter

2:56

I don't think he's gonna be duplicating 2022 any time soon, that was just a ton of things going right all at once, but he has plus power and while his approach is so-so, he makes enough contact despite it to hit a ton of smashed contact

Johnny5Alive

2:56

I have wondered whether this years dismal mets offensive output can be put on switching hitting coaches? The approach is awful, and everyone regressed way more than I think even folks like you would have expected. They HAD to give this coach the job because they were worred about losing him, but honestly, maybe they should? Even baty goes back to AAA and is magically fixed in 2 games like a completely different hitter. I would typically argue coaches don't really make big impacts, but this is... bad. Thoughts?

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