JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/14/23

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/14/23

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Ben Clemens

3:07

His defense just feels too bad to me to not be a huge bat catcher and still be valuable

Matt

3:07

"Scherzer's been alright too. But yeah, Candelario has been the best hitter traded by a mile, and none of the pitchers have really popped"

what about the dude that threw a freakin' no hitter for his new team?

Ben Clemens

3:07

He'd be up there too for sure

And definitely led to the most fun I've had writing about any of these guys

3:08

The thing is, he's only made two starts

I just need more

I guess that kinda applies to Scherzer too

the fact is, Candelario has just been awesome

Ghost of Wade Boggs

3:08

If I may expand on v2micca's question, did Mike Trout give us unreasonable expectations on prospects, as well? Before Trout, it was kinda accepted that prospects, no matter highly touted, had a certain degree of failure that was expected from them, and they would slowly develop or drop off entirely. Trout comes along as the #1 (or #2, depending on you listen to) prospect in baseball and reals off 8 elite seasons in a row to start his career. Who can live up to that?

Ben Clemens

3:08

Also yes

He and Harper both, honestly

bosoxforlife

3:08

It's time for a peach question. About a month ago there was a discussion about risking your money on a peach, great or awful, or settling for something more mundane, but safe. The grocery store put peaches on sale and I gambled my hard earned money and bought 6. All were perfect!!!. But they are too expensive to buy again

Ben Clemens

3:09

So I made a salad last night with peaches in it, and it was spectacular

I'm gonna have to try this more often; basically arugula, avocado, tomatoes, peaches, balsamic

Peaches are high risk high reward. They haven't been absurdly expensive here but on the flip side, I can't buy blackberries anymore

That crushes me; they're my favorite fruit

Thomas

3:10

Re: Matt Damon movies, highly recommend The Informant! . Weird Damon is really fun

Ben Clemens

3:10

Also a good one

Ethan

3:10

Someone has done the game by game pythag work in the past. Iirc the results weren’t that different. It’s on tangos blog somewhere. PythagMatt was the name I think

Ben Clemens

3:10

Hey, might save me an article

Eh?

3:10

Re: Peaches... If you are lucky enough to be able to get peaches from the Niagara region while they are fresh, please do so. I just had one myself and it made my day better.

Ben Clemens

3:10

Look at these inside fruit tips my chat churns out

Appa Yip Yip

3:10

People don't like attributing things to luck because it's fundamentally out of our control, and I don't want to disparage the work Baltimore's scouting department has done, but there's also a ton of luck involved in hitting on that many draft picks. Tanking simply isn't a surefire strategy to contention in baseball.

Ben Clemens

3:10

For sure, I think that's why a lot of the approach is based around defense in depth

3:11

draft a ton of dudes so that variance can work your way instead of against you

I think that variance is a generally misunderstood and under-applied concept in strategic ventures

I don't want to go all Nassim Taleb on you, but if your plan doesn't account for the inevitable fact that future outcomes are not known and skill/talent levels aren't static, it's probably a bad plan

Stevesy

3:12

This year's Yankees are trash, but is there any expectation that the next few years won't be as well? So many bad contracts still to see out.

Ben Clemens

3:13

I thiiiiiink it'll be fine? Rodon will likely be better, Rizzo won't play this much with this poor of outcomes, Donaldson will be gone, etc

Volpe is heating up, their pitching will improve.... I mean, I don't think they're WS favorites in '24 or anything but I think they'll be meaningfully better, and they're above .500 this year already!

Beck

3:13

Hey Ben, thanks for doing the chat.
With Fernando Valenzuela getting his number retired, which non-HoF player do you want to see their jersey number retired (if the team does have HoF requirement, they are willing to wave it for this player)?

Ben Clemens

3:14

Ooh, I am going to say that this will be unscientific and not comprehensive, because I'm just not THAT good at baseball historoy

history*

but for me, Jimmy Rollins in Philly

Really him plus Utley, but I'm picking one

3:15

I think that era of Phillies teams was so beloved in the city that he should be celebrated for that

Random Fact Generator

3:15

Freedie Freeman played 136 innings at third base in 2017 and had +3 DRS. He has not played third base in any other season.

Ben Clemens

3:15

delightful

the reverse Nick Castellanos

Kosch

3:15

Does FG have an office, or does everyone work from home full time?

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