JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/14/23

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Ben Clemens

3:26

That's my general view on it

I like the zone being probabilistic

3:27

I would prefer fewer challenges than more, but I think having the ability to correct a bad call in a big spot is useful

Justin

3:27

% chance that Acuña doesn't win MVP? It's gotta be either Olson or Freeman if not huh?

Ben Clemens

3:27

Don't leave Mookie out of that list

but I think Acuna is still like 80%

3:27

Forgive me if my logic or math is wrong, but shouldn't average with RISP be positively leaning? I.E. with a runner on second and no outs, if a team's average is .333, then most likely they will get a hit in the first two plate appearances, so their average with RISP will be 1.000 or .500. That might be too simplistic, but it's the easiest way I can think about it.

Ben Clemens

3:28

Okay, we can do this for this exact example: runner on second, one out, and let's assume that any hit scores him but a sac fly won't

So, 1/3 of the time, you get a hit right away. 1 AB, 1 H

3:29

another 2/9 of the time (2/3*1/3) you make an out and then a hit, 2 AB 1 H

Another 4/9 of the time (2/3*2/3) you make two outs, 2AB 0H

3:30

so let's say it happens 9 times, just for ease of math

this particular situation

you end up with 3-3, 2-4, and 0-8

which adds up to 5-15, .333

3:31

math is neat

Evan

3:31

Worried at all about Corbin Carroll? He's had a tough second half of the season so far.

Ben Clemens

3:31

I'm fairly worried that he is hurt

and that's just always going to be my primary worry with him

Dude blew out his shoulder because he swings harder than his ligaments and joints can handle, that sounds scary

Chooch

3:32

How do I explain to fellow phillies fans that Nicky C is in fact not a good defender, despite his "apparent" and turnaround this year?

Ben Clemens

3:32

I mean, probably you won't be able to

3:33

Because anyone who thinks that is probably not gonna want to do the work of diving into range-based metrics and thikning about the plays he should have made but didn't

He's better than he was last year! And he's still bad because he's slow and gets bad jumps

3:34

but outfield defense is tricky that way, because sliding catches look cool and the camera doesn't show jumps

bosoxforlife

3:34

One of my pet peeves is 3rd base coaches not taking a 50-50 shot at sending the runner with a .210 hitter on deck. Perfect execution by the defense is a lot less than 50-50.

Ben Clemens

3:34

100% agreed

Alright, it was a nice long chat session today, but I'm gonna go eat some lunch now. Thanks as always for hanging out with me today. Let's do it again next week.

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