JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/21

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Ben Clemens

2:26

Yeah, font too big and strange, but not block

Joseph

2:27

On Elvis Andrus, he is one of the largest xwoba underperformers this year, so if you buy into that as him being unlucky this year, you might view him more as a 1-1.5 WAR veteran with plus intangibles vs. washed up replacement guy

Ben Clemens

2:27

Not buying it even a little

The reason he's underperforming his xwOBA is because he hasn't gotten enough production out of his line drives

So sure, you can expect that to pop back up

But he's also running a 25.8% line drive rate vs. career 21.4%

So he'll hit fewer line drives next year most likely, and do better on the ones he does hit, net not too much effect

2:28

This is one of the things about xwOBA that makes it tough to use -- it's more descriptive than predictive, so if you have a fluky-high line drive rate or something, or hit a ton of flares, it will give you a big number

But those things aren't very predictive

2:29

The parts of hitting that are predictive make Andrus look bad. He's hitting fewer balls hard, not barreling anything, highest strikeout rate of his career

xwOBA

2:29

If it's not predictive, shouldn't it be more like "underlying wOBA" than "expected"

Ben Clemens

2:30

It's what you would expect their wOBA to have been based on their batted balls

But yeah, I'm with you, the name definitely can be confusing

Nathan

2:30

If a player is exceeding or underperforming his xwOBA, is it always explainable by luck, or is there a point where his actual performance is who he is regardless of what it says?

Ben Clemens

2:30

DEFINITELY not always explainable by luck

I would argue it's often not explainable by luck

xwOBA is a neat tool but it's certainly not foolproof

Severino

2:30

His contract was all of four not very expensive years. Yeah, hasn't worked out, but, like, that was not a dumb deal.

Ben Clemens

2:31

Right, and I think the Mets would sign deGrom again

Don

2:31

Why don't projection systems favor Tyler O'Neill RoS? No big expected rise or fall in K% or BB%; it seems to be based on BABIP regression, but xBA and xwOBA exceed BA and wOBA, and he's got a 55 HH% and 18 Barrel%. Is .356 really unsustainable?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Similar deal to Andrus. It's reasonable to think he won't keep hitting 26% line drives, which will cut into his BABIP

I think they're too low on his babip, regression or not

2:33

B/c his combination of hard-hit rate and speed tends to lead to high babips

2:34

Is his babip unsustainable? Probably long-run yeah. But if it's .330 or something (that's basically his career average) it's still a better line than his projections

I'd take the over on our 108 ROS wRC+, but the under on 120

Draper

2:34

Who do you think the wild cards will be for each league?

Guest

2:34

Think the Reds can chase down the Padres? The Reds have some issues with Winker being out and the bullpen still being shaky, but the Padres' rotation has been a shambles.

Ben Clemens

2:35

I'll take the Padres, it feels like the teams are just trading awful injury news (Winker is out now) but the Padres are ahead and weathered Tatis being out without losing the lead

Bryan Reynolds

2:36

Dark Horse MVP? .309/.391/.536 🤤

Ben Clemens

2:36

I mean, no, but definite MVP vote-getter

2:37

Reynolds has continued to impress at the plate throughout the year, particularly when it comes to power

2:38

That's what really surprises me most about him; the babip has always been there, but he's getting to his power way more than I thought he would

MM

2:38

How do statcasts stats like xBA handle things like the way defenses position their players? A line drive hit really hard by a LH batter directly at where a 3B traditionally plays would be an out, but against a shift where 3B is in RF that same hit it is going to be a double. So the actual expected BA on that would be different today than, say several years ago when there were fewer shifts.

Ben Clemens

2:39

They handle it by COMPLETELY ignoring horizontal angle

Down the 3b line? Right at short? Right at second? All treated the same

Is that the right way to treat it? I dunno

But that's what it does

Nathan

2:40

If I have bunch of players’ wrc+ and I want to see what their team wrc+ would be if they were all together do I just average them all? Or do I need more information like plate appearances or something?

Ben Clemens

2:40

You could average them together and get close, but it wouldn't be perfect just b/c the #1 hitter will bat more than the #9 hitter

But you'd get pretty close, it's probably good enough for theoretical purposes

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