JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/21

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Johnny5Alive

2:41

Is senzel basically done in Cincinnati? they optioned him after his IL stint was done, and then opted to not call him up when they put Winker on the IL.

Ben Clemens

2:41

It kind of feels like it, right?

2:42

I think they also might think he's not ready, or not fully back from injury

I think they'll give him a shot next year, for example

But his rehab time was basically up, and if they were watching him and not into what they were seeing, I don't hate just calling this year a wash and putting him in AAA

segiddins

2:43

Obligatory gaming question: have you played Arkham Horror? My friend and I have been playing it over mission burritos the past few weeks and I feel like it's getting me back into tabletop gaming. If you have, any other games like it that you'd reccomend?

Ben Clemens

2:43

I have played Arkham Horror, it's a ton of fun

2:44

I like that co-op style of game; Aeon's End (and Aeon's End Legacy) are similarly-styled games minus the walking around a board part that my wife and I have liked playing

We have played, I dunno, maybe 6 Arkham Horror missions?

Or whatver they're called, Mythos packs

2:45

So I'm not an expert

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:45

So, you have to play any board game vs. Brian Cashman: you win, you get to GM the Yankees, you lose, you work on the janitorial staff there until age 65. You taking Candyland, or a game of skill?

Ben Clemens

2:45

Depends on if he gets to practice or not

If we're playing right now, I'd just pick something that he's surely never played but that is semi-solvable

If he's going to get a month to practice and he'll actually practice instead of, you know, running the Yankees

2:46

I'd honestly still pick a skill-based board game I think? I have to think that something where I've spent years learning the angles gives me a better than coinflip shot

Draper

2:46

With Degrom’s missed time, Wheeler or Buehler for Cy? Layman here but, briefly, what mainly accounts for Wheeler’s WAR advantage over Buehler?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I give Buehler the edge despite Wheeler's WAR lead

As to what leads to the WAR, it's a few things

First, Wheeler has a slightly lower FIP and we base our headline WAR off of FIP. Wheeler has allowed more runners who reach base to score, and FIP kind of normalizes for that

Also, Philly is a tougher place to pitch than LA

2:48

Per our park factors, it's roughly average for run scoring overall, while LA is 5% below average

So a pitcher of the same quality would allow fewer runs in LA. So we credit Wheeler with the difference (or debit Buehler the edge, whichever you want to call it)

2:49

But I think that ERA is meaningful for Cy Young (hot take I know), and Buehler is pushing 2.00 while going 12-2 for a great team

It's just a really broad overall resume

Joe

2:50

Burnes not a consideration for NL Cy?

Ben Clemens

2:50

He is as well for sure

I think the lack of innings will doom him though

Wheeler has pitched 40 more innings so far

It's just a LOT

If Burnes was only 20 innings behind it'd be one thing

I'd probably vote Burnes anyway but I don't think voters will

Doug

2:51

If the Phillies win the division, there's got to be a reasonable chance they get both the Cy Young and MVP winners, right?

Ben Clemens

2:51

Yes, for sure

I think in a year with no clear standout

Voters will care more about players who lead their team to the playoffs

2:52

Like, there are no obvious best players in the NL and plenty of people within margin of error for WAR

Brian

2:52

You buying this Cardinals outfield for the future? if the changes oneill and bader made are real its a pretty legit group

Ben Clemens

2:52

Yeah, the outfield is my favorite part of this Cards team

2:53

Bader is a blast to watch, O'Neill looks like at least an average player (he's the one I'm most worried about still), and Carlson is doing as well as I could have hoped, solidly above average hitter at 22

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