JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/22

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Ben Clemens

2:17

I've seen videos of him, he looks legit. I don't know how to extrapolate from that to where he should be ranked as a prospect

Joe

2:17

I'm pretty sure NYY will be fine.... right?

Ben Clemens

2:18

I think so. Weird offensive funk can happen to anyone, and it's not like they necessarily need to win a ton right now

home field advantage throughout the playoffs is nice, but it's honestly not a huge deal, and I don't think they need to be worried about the ALE anytime soon

Definitely funny how well Gallo is playing in LA though

2:19

'Joey Gallo is a better hitter than Andrew Benintendi' is not a controversial take

RTJ

2:19

Tony crowd-sourcing managerial decisions is what MLB could use to spice up their broadcasts:

Fan catches TLR sleeping, gets him to pinch run Adam Engel 😂😂😂

2:19

TLR taking suggestions from fans now ?

Ben Clemens

2:19

So, I don't think he's actually taking a suggestion from a fan here

2:20

Funny to think of it that way but let's be realistic

I think he was just gonna do it anyway

James

2:20

Assuming Verlander opts out, how long of a contract does he get? Will 2/70 get it done?

Ben Clemens

2:21

I think it might be more like 2/80, a mini-Scherzer deal, but I wonder if he'd just want to sign a similar deal to what he did this year with the player option contingent on IP

2:22

I can't imagine he's interested in leaving Houston at this point but I dunno, I said that last year and plenty of Astros fans said I didn't understand the internal team dynamics etc. etc.

seems to me like he's happy there is all I'll say

Matt Damon

2:22

MATT. DAMON.

Sean

2:22

What do you make of AJ Preller's comments re: Tatis? On the one hand, I appreciate the candor relative to the usual non-answers. On the other hand, people in glass houses, etc.

Ben Clemens

2:23

Yeah.... It's a really fraught situation

I'd be really upset with Tatis if I were Preller

I'd be really upset with Tatis if I were one of his teammates

But stuff like that usually gets handled internally, and it's definitely weird to see it out in the open

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:23

In light of his ringworm problem, how would you change Tatis' place on the trade value rankings?

Ben Clemens

2:24

Well, let's just say I'm glad I hedged by calling it a provisional ranking and saying that I'd want to see a healthy month before making him the actual #3

No one is going to trade for him until he has a full season now

So I guess he's just not on the list?

David

2:25

What do you make of Triston Mckenzie? He's been quite good this year, but I can't help but feel the rug is going to be pulled out from underneath it all.

Ben Clemens

2:26

I think he's going to continue to deliver really high highs, but he's so fastball-dominant that I think he's gonna be really streaky. I'd love to see him develop a more consistent extra secondary so that he doesn't have to just live on the fastball. I know his curve is a great pitch but you need more than one

That said, it's a great fastball! One of the best in the majors imo, it just has that sneaky ride that hitters never adjust to

Some Guy

2:27

How in the world is Cal Quantrill keeping such a large difference between his ERA, and his FIP and xStats?

Ben Clemens

2:27

Because baseball

2:28

is this even that large of a gap? pitchers do this all the time

Look at Dakota Hudson's career, for example

wingedbeater

2:28

I’ve seen some arguments that Ohtani must be the MVP that turn on the value of the extra roster spot he opens up for his team by virtue of being two-way player. These arguments generally start with his WAR, which is in the upper echelon of AL players. They next add some undefined amount to that total, under the assumption that the extra roster spot Ohtani grants his team vaults his value far beyond those who have similar or even higher WARs. What do you think of arguments that proceed in this way? How much is an extra roster spot worth?

Ben Clemens

2:28

I dunno, but I think that it's close enough to negligible that I don't really care

2:29

I also don't love WAR-based arguments if people are close, because it's a rounding error

I'm okay just voting for the player I think had the best season without doing some mental gymnastics to account for what would happen in that player's absence or whatnot

Matthew

2:30

What's up with the playoff odds loving the NL? Eyeballing the world series vs lcs odds, it looks like all of the NL teams are overrated. For instance, the Mets are favored to win the lcs 27% of the time and the ws 17% (i.e. 60% favorites to win the WS if they make it), the Phillies are at 6.2% and 3.1%, the Yankees are at 25% and 10%, and the Rays are at 5.9% and 2.1%

Ben Clemens

2:30

It's because any NL team that wins the CS won't have to play the Dodgers in the WS, while AL teams have to play the Dodgers most of the time

2:31

I think it's just fine? The odds aren't perfectly precise or anything, they're not trying to be. Dan runs his separate series-by-series odds in the playoffs to account for hte way the rosters work then. As a rough ballpark, the NL being likelier to win the WS seems fine to me

2:31

Is it useful to take endpoint statistic snapshots (i.e. since July 1st Player X has hit .300/.400/.500) if it coinsides with a specific event (returning from injury, getting called back up from the minors, adopting a swing change) or is it always dangerous to take specific selections of data since it might just be a hot/cold streak and natural variance of, you know, the fact that these are human beings

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