JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/22

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Ben Clemens

2:32

I mean, it's more useful than if the endpoints are completely arbitrary

I'd still take it with a grain of salt, but your priors matter

Weekend Hack

2:32

So, the Fernando Tatis news - what if he was just doing it to get back healthy. How much do we care? We want to watch him

Ben Clemens

2:32

Yeah honestly I don't care that much about the PED usage

2:33

I care a bit more about the absurd ringworm excuse, and really the whole snow job going on of a bunch of excuses for 'yeah I took this because I wanted to get back to the field and didn't think I'd get caught'

Kosch

2:34

Does WPA track fielding plays? or just hitters and pitchers? if not, when can we expect that? I am thinking Game 6 '86 WS as the example of a big mover....

Ben Clemens

2:34

Only pitchers and hitters. I think we'll probably keep that as-is for the indefinite future, it's just not feasible given the way we collect fielding data to handle that, and to disambiguate pitcher and fielder and hitter WPA values for a given play

B613

2:34

What will it take for the NYY to move on from Cashman and Boone? As a lifelong Yankee fan, I have very little faith left in either of them.

Ben Clemens

2:35

Oh man, it's funny because all the trade deadline takes were about how Cashman is the ur-GM who understands the game perfectly

I think Cashman does a great job. I have little opinion of Boone

The Real Ben Clemens

2:36

What is your concern level about BWJ's defense? Started the season looking solid-to-above average but has absolutely cratered the last month or two

Ben Clemens

2:36

It's pretty close to zero

I dunno, when you're slicing up already-iffy sample sizes of defensive metrics to be even smaller for a rookie who switched positions mid-season, I think it's reasonable to take a breath

Topical Pun

2:36

If we're limited to the greater STL area, Goldy or Arenado for MVP?

Ben Clemens

2:36

Arenado for me

2:37

I just love Arenado's all-around game. Not that Goldschmidt isn't also great, obviously

This is just a tour de force from Arenado, his best season as a pro at a time when people thought he'd be declining

Mets fan

2:37

Assuming Degrom stays healthy and continues to perform for the rest of the season, how much do the last two partial seasons contribute to his HOF candidacy?

Ben Clemens

2:37

If deGrom finishes this season at this health level, has one more Cy-ish season, and reaches 10 ML seasons, I think he's a slam dunk

2:38

He's modern-day Sandy Koufax, with different problems but the same wildly electric peak

Jay

2:38

Hey Ben. Not really a question but something that has bugged me for a while: Since Molina became their starting catcher in 2005, Fangraphs has the Cardinals' pitching staff being worth 77 runs in the rSB stat, which is far and away tops in MLB (almost a full standard deviation higher than the 2nd place Royals) and quite a bit more than Yadi himself has been worth. This just feels wrong. What are the the odds that the 100s of different Cards' pitchers over 17 years have collectively dominated every other team in this one stat? Seems far more likely that Yadi is the reason for the Cards' success preventing SBs over that time period, no? If so this is potentially a big chunk of missing WAR in Yadi's career.

Ben Clemens

2:39

Who knows! If you ask anyone involved in the running game, they'll tell you that runners steal on the pitcher, not the catcher. What if Molina is just really good at telling his pitchres to be quick to the plate? I don't think that's incredibly likely, but it's definitely possible, or it could be an organizational philosophy

2:40

If you wanna tack on half of that value, 3 wins or whatever, to his career, fine. Defensive WAR is inherently really volatile and I wouldn't use WAR as a way of saying whether Yadi should be a hall of famer. To me, he's just obviously one

David

2:40

Re Tatis and PEDs: the ringworm excuse more than anything showed the lack of accountability he is taking for his actions. It is what disappointed me more than the PED usage itself.

Ben Clemens

2:40

Yep, this is where I am

Chuck

2:40

If I can ask a fantasy question, should I gamble on dropping Gleyber, a meh solid option on my bench, to pick up Vaughn Grissom? I'm competing for first in my redraft H2h league.

Ben Clemens

2:41

I think I'd do it. I love yolo'ing on some random prospects, because if they don't work you just try the same thing again, I feel like it really pays off to use those marginal bench spots on shot-taking rather than blah production if it's at all possible

Alby

2:41

Baltimore is playing nearly .600 ball since Adley was promoted. He has always been credited with "intangibles" about leadership. Is this evidence that they exist?

Ben Clemens

2:41

Nope!

Vinny

2:41

Is Joey Votto a HOF candidate?

Ben Clemens

2:42

Yeah. He'd be in my personal Hall, but I'm both a big hall guy and someone who really values OBP in a way the HOF voting class doesn't

I htink he'll have a tough time making it though I think he deserves it

Didace

2:42

"What will it take for the NYY to move on from..." New York fans always crack me up. "We aren't winning 80% of our games in the last two weeks. What in the world is wrong with this team?!"

Ben Clemens

2:43

Plenty of fanbases have fans like that. The Yankees just have a lot of fans

Vin

2:43

is degrom worth $50 million a year if he’s only going max 90 pitches?

Ben Clemens

2:43

Iiiiiinteresting

If I could guarantee he'd make 25 starts, I think so

He's just soooooooo good

Michael Conforto